BPC

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Spot the spread: Are current battery revenues enough to encourage further investment?

    In AEMO’s ‘Step Change’ scenario, it was estimated that storage capacity in the NEM would need to increase by a factor of 30 between 2022 and 2050 to support a grid transformation that limits temperature rises below 2 degrees. This represents about 13GW of new storage capacity by 2030 and...

  • Low carbon generation

    NSW’s transition to a new era: What will replace Eraring?

    After 52 years of operation, the NSW Liddell power station officially shut down last 28 April. With Liddell’s closure, NSW’s transition to a green energy future is in full swing. First announced in 2015, NSW had seven years to ensure there is enough replacement capacity once Liddell is retired. Since...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Iceman Liddell calls it a career

    Recently in the news, there has been some concern that the closure of the Liddell power station in NSW will be a repeat of what we witnessed in 2017 with the closure of Hazelwood. Hazelwood’s closure led to higher prices, particularly over summer peak demand periods1. This is a poor...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Exploring the impact of storage assets on QEJP sensitivities

    Battery storage has great potential to generate high revenues during large market shifts, especially in Queensland (as shown in our previous analysis in Cotw #158). The Queensland government’s recently announced Energy and Jobs Plan (QEJP) would be another big shift as it aims to reduce the state’s reliance on generation...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    “If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough.” – Mario Andretti

    Over the past few months, there has been an avalanche of announcements related to the energy market. Victoria wants to be 65% renewable by 2030 and 95% by 2035, AGL is likely to retire Loy Yang A ten years earlier, Queensland has its Energy and Jobs Plan, and transmission investment...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Casualties of the energy transition highway – market effects of Torrens Island B retirement

    As part of Australia’s energy transition, investments are being made to ensure sufficient network capacity to host renewable energy generation, share them between regions, and maintain power system security and reliability. One of the interconnectors being built is Project EnergyConnect (PEC), which will provide 800 MW of transfer capacity between...

  • Low carbon generation

    Lean, clean, electrolysing machines – how clean is Australia’s hydrogen future?

    The Clean Energy Regulator is currently exploring how to define ‘low-emissions’ hydrogen production through a Guarantee of Origin (GO) scheme for Australia. Such a scheme could set a threshold level for carbon emissions from the production process in order to classify it as being ‘clean’, similar to schemes in operation...

  • Low carbon generation

    Loy Yang A closure: How much VRE and firming capacity is required to cover peak hours?

    AGL has accelerated the closure of the Loy Yang A power station for the second time in 2022, a few days after the Victorian government announced a target of 2.6 GW storage by 2030, increasing to 6.3 GW storage by 2035. According to the AGL announcement, released on 29 September,...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Now we’re peaking with gas: how much evening NEM demand could be replaced with batteries?

    The events leading up to the recent market suspension in June have highlighted the role that peaking gas-fired generation plays in satisfying demand and setting prices across the NEM in the morning and evening peak periods. The team recently explored some of the drivers and effects of these events in...

  • Low carbon generation

    Analysing earlier coal retirement in Victoria: What does it take for more emission reduction?

    AEMO has recently published the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP), which provides an energy transition roadmap for the National Electricity Market (NEM). This ISP focuses on the “Step Change” scenario, which reflects strong action on climate change leading to a step change reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, based on the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    “Each day looking for new ways to go on”: could a renewable capacity market assist hydrogen turbines?

    The rise of renewables has seen the need for additional firming capacity in order to smooth renewable output and replace coal capacity in the evening peak. The ESB and federal Ministers are currently in discussions regarding the development (or not) of a capacity market for the NEM. Interestingly from the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Back to the Future P-IV: Are P5 Forecasts reliable?

    Is there a correct way to be one step ahead of your competitors? Do you want to be able to know the price before settlement accurately? The P5 Reports supposedly provide this… or do they? Many participants use this data to determine optimal outcomes for their fleets. Still, there is...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Mandated PFR tunes out regulation FCAS markets – What happens to batteries?

    The introduction of the mandatory Primary Frequency Response (PFR) in September 2020 improved frequency control of the NEM considerably, as highlighted by AEMO. In this Chart of the week, we look at NEM mainland FCAS regulation services dispatch before and after PFR implementation and the behaviour of the Hornsdale Power...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Don’t look back in anger: are peaking assets exploiting 5-min price spikes?

    Building on our previous Chart of the week in October, where we reviewed the first couple of weeks of 5-minute settlement, we wanted to revisit this topic. Now two months in, we take another look and see how well the fastest responding assets in the NEM are capturing the best...