energy market

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Now we’re peaking with gas: how much evening NEM demand could be replaced with batteries?

    The events leading up to the recent market suspension in June have highlighted the role that peaking gas-fired generation plays in satisfying demand and setting prices across the NEM in the morning and evening peak periods. The team recently explored some of the drivers and effects of these events in...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Off the charts: ESOO flags earlier reliability shortfalls but no need to panic yet

    In the space of a year, the prospect of reliability shortfalls in the NEM has increased significantly. This is the stark finding of AEMO’s latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report. In our Chart of the week, we illustrate how reliability forecasts have deteriorated in just a year, and we...

  • Power and gas networks

    Losses or gains? What do transmission upgrades mean for Marginal Loss Factors

    AEMO’s 2022 Integrated System Plan has listed a group of committed and anticipated network projects, including VNI Minor, QNI Minor, and the Western Renewables Link (WRL). Besides relaxing network constraints, improving reliability, and unlocking generation capacities, transmission upgrades may also impact the Marginal Loss Factor (MLF) around the planned area....

  • Low carbon generation

    Analysing earlier coal retirement in Victoria: What does it take for more emission reduction?

    AEMO has recently published the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP), which provides an energy transition roadmap for the National Electricity Market (NEM). This ISP focuses on the “Step Change” scenario, which reflects strong action on climate change leading to a step change reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, based on the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    “Each day looking for new ways to go on”: could a renewable capacity market assist hydrogen turbines?

    The rise of renewables has seen the need for additional firming capacity in order to smooth renewable output and replace coal capacity in the evening peak. The ESB and federal Ministers are currently in discussions regarding the development (or not) of a capacity market for the NEM. Interestingly from the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Do batteries add viability to electrolysers within the current market?

    Last month, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced that there will be a gas shortfall in the east coast market in 2023, not a surprise considering the international gas crisis and high gas prices in Australia. Such events have increased attention towards expanding gas supply or reducing the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Hydrogen hype: How cheap the hydrogen from electrolysis can be?

    Hydrogen is considered a potential replacement for fossil fuels for energy generation, transport etc. Currently, 96% of hydrogen production originates from fossil fuels through steam reforming and coal gasifications. Only a small fraction (~4%) is produced via electrolysis. The high Capex of the electrolyser is usually referred to as the...

  • Home supply and services

    “The more [retailers] we come across, the more problems we see”

    Thirty-one retailers have gone bust since the start of 2021 in the UK. At least one of those entities has a subsidiary in the Australian market (having yet to acquire any customers, according to the most recent AER and ESC data). In this Chart of the week, we take a...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Nobody said it was easy, but it’s time for us to part: VIC’s climate targets & coal

    In 2017, the Victorian Government legislated a state target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Since then, short-term targets have been set in five-year increments, with the 2030 target being to cut emissions by 45-50% below 2005 levels. The Government is currently consulting on the 2035 target, which must...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Price spikes in Queensland: Is solar revenue affected?

    In the last few months, we have seen a substantial number of high price intervals in Queensland. Increased Market Demand on 9 March and the simultaneous trip of Gladstone units 3 and 4 on 31 March spiked energy prices to $8,800/MWh and $15,100/MWh levels, respectively. These price spikes occurred between...

  • Power and gas networks

    Are you sure this is safe?

    On a real-time basis, AEMO communicates with the market through several channels, including market notices where they update everyone about the real-time state of the market and the facilities that support it. In this Chart of the week, we dive into some of the statistics around market notices to provide...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    State election day chills; SA hit $9,934/MWh on Saturday evening 19 March

    SA’s reliance on wind is getting to a point where there is not much to do except importing from VIC and generating with expensive fuel, such as diesel, when wind speed is not at its best shape. In this Chart of the week, we take a closer look at South...

  • Low carbon generation

    SA on cusp of 100% instantaneous renewables; gas unit directions remain

    AEMO’s goal of handling 100% instantaneous renewable penetration by 2025 is a significant challenge and fitting, given the pace the NEM is moving to support increasingly higher levels of instantaneous (and increasingly asynchronous) renewables regularly. While this challenge may not be as pressing for all NEM regions, the need to...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Back to the Future P-IV: Are P5 Forecasts reliable?

    Is there a correct way to be one step ahead of your competitors? Do you want to be able to know the price before settlement accurately? The P5 Reports supposedly provide this… or do they? Many participants use this data to determine optimal outcomes for their fleets. Still, there is...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Fast Frequency Response (FFR) market: Is the NEM prepared for a new market?

    In July 2021, final rules were published to introduce two new market ancillary services – a very fast raise and very fast lower service. These markets would provide an FCAS contingency response faster than the existing 6-second market. The Fast Frequency Response (FFR) markets are set to commence on 9...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    “I’m an All-Pro [coal plant]… You’ll never be more than a replacement player!”

    The retirement of Eraring has been the talk of the market since it was announced, but what are the actual implications of its retirement. How big a hole does it leave in the market, and what capacity is likely to fill the void? We take a quick look at some...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Hogging the spotlight: the opportunity in the evening peak

    As the duck curve steepens and renewable energy penetration increases in the NEM, we briefly examine revenue share by time of day and highlight the growing opportunity in the evening peak. Will this become the new normal, with revenues increasingly concentrated in just one part of the day? Or will...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Seasonal frequency in the NEM: is VRE continuing to drive it?

    Frequency control remains a challenge for AEMO. New PFR (primary frequency response) provisions established in March 2020 will help AEMO to control frequency more efficiently. However, is it yet to be seen how market participants will be incentivised to participate in PFR market. In light of the rapid growth of...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Is the NEM going off schedule?

    Is the NEM getting harder to control with rising variable renewable generation and distributed photovoltaic growth? AEMO’s balancing of scheduled supply is critical to ensure the system remains stable and wholesale prices work efficiently. This Chart of the week briefly examines if the NEM is “on schedule” to meet this...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Round and round it goes, where the loop flow stops, nobody knows

    A by-product of how market boundaries are defined, loop flows are phenomena in electricity markets that manifest as flows going in one direction across parts of a network loop and goes the opposite way in other parts of the same network loop. Regardless of whether the market design is nodal...

  • Regulation and policy

    “Behind-the-Connection-Point” A match made in heaven?

    The AEMC's new rule change for storage integration into the NEM provides more flexibility for hybrid systems and VRE owners to more effectively level their bids and participation into the market. This means, if the new rule takes place, hybrids can manage their own internal energy exchange behind the connection...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Residues of negative pricing

    Building on the last two Charts of the week, the rise in the frequency of negative wholesale energy prices in the NEM has impacts beyond the price of electricity. In this Chart of the week, we take a closer look at the impact of negative pricing on Inter-Regional Settlement Residue...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Duck, duck, goose: bigger bellies and longer necks

    The last few months have been littered with record low demand in the system, highlighting that the ducks of the NEM continue to arch their backs lower and lower.  In this Chart of the week, we zoom out on the changes to scheduled demand and in the variability of the lowest and...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    How deep is your love? A look at the depth of negative prices in South Australia

    The recent rise in the frequency of negative wholesale energy prices in the NEM has captured the attention of many market observers. A less-discussed aspect is how deep these negative prices run. How much additional demand could be added to the system during the negative-priced dispatch intervals before the prices...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Mandated PFR tunes out regulation FCAS markets – What happens to batteries?

    The introduction of the mandatory Primary Frequency Response (PFR) in September 2020 improved frequency control of the NEM considerably, as highlighted by AEMO. In this Chart of the week, we look at NEM mainland FCAS regulation services dispatch before and after PFR implementation and the behaviour of the Hornsdale Power...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Don’t look back in anger: are peaking assets exploiting 5-min price spikes?

    Building on our previous Chart of the week in October, where we reviewed the first couple of weeks of 5-minute settlement, we wanted to revisit this topic. Now two months in, we take another look and see how well the fastest responding assets in the NEM are capturing the best...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    FCAS not dead?

    A couple of months ago, AEMO released the final Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios Report (IASR) that contains the basis of all planning publications for the next few years.  The changing electricity consumption and generation pattern in the NEM is introducing new challenges to the operation of the energy system; minimum and...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Houston, we have a transmission problem

    Variable Renewable Energy is making tremendous strides towards the predominant energy source in the NEM, but its voracious capital intensity is over-running existing transmission capacity. Consumers are faced with a $3.5bn transmission build cost over the next 20 years, which to return value relies heavily on the emergence of grid...

  • Low carbon generation

    Embedded generators and the future of TNUoS charging

    Electricity network charges are currently undergoing a significant period of reform to ensure that charging methodologies are fit for purpose in the transitioning energy market. Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) generator charges are a particular topic of debate at present, with locational tariffs raising concern by some parties and...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Victorian story of gas demand segments

    The Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) prices in Victoria have been on a rising trend since the start-up of LNG exports in 2015. Is this trend sustainable, given the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) forecasts an improved gas supply outlook with the new Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) expected to...