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Gas market
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Power and gas networks
Will we run out of gas this winter?
In unfavourable conditions, gas shortfalls on peak days this winter are a distinct possibility highlighted by AEMO’s 2023 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO). The GSOO is released yearly and provides a forecast of the adequacy of east coast gas supplies based on demand forecasts. The GSOO can highlight to the...
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Commercial and market outlook
Australian gas prices have recently coupled with European spot. Will linkage persist post-2023?
Last year it was difficult to imagine that spot gas prices in Australia would hit unprecedented levels of more than $40-50/GJ, with AEMO capping the DWGM price at $40/GJ. By comparison, the DWGM only averaged $5.10/GJ last year. As was mentioned by Energy Market Intelligence Manager Mohsin Ali in the...
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Power and gas networks
Australian gas markets spike to unprecedented levels
Australia’s gas markets are in the middle of an unprecedented price spike. Current prices in the Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) have been tracking in the $20-40/GJ range since early May 2022, with prices hitting $50/GJ on 30 May. Prices in the other gas hubs of Sydney and Brisbane...
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Commercial and market outlook
The Victorian story of gas demand segments
The Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) prices in Victoria have been on a rising trend since the start-up of LNG exports in 2015. Is this trend sustainable, given the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) forecasts an improved gas supply outlook with the new Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) expected to...
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Business supply and services
SMEs (Small and medium businesses) experience record breaking prices
In Q321 the average SME gas contract was priced at the highest value since we started tracking propositions in 2012 (4.98p/th for 1-year acquisition contracts that assume a 25MWh annual consumption). Our Pricing in the SME Gas/Power Markets reports also shows SME electricity contracts seeing record highs, priced at 19.95p/kWh...
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Power and gas networks
The rise of wholesale gas prices … the saga
It is certainly not a standard summer season for gas prices. Normally with demand for gas typically lower, we should see prices at the lowest levels of the calendar year. However, Summer 2021 gas prices are currently seeing bullish momentum with price points that we would expect to see in winter. In this ‘Chart of...
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Power and gas networks
Australian Chart of the week | Elephant in the room: the veiled role of gas markets/supply?
Queensland Liquified Natural Gas exports commenced in early 2015. Historically, prior to this, gas markets in eastern Australia have been relatively stable. Conventional gas fields supplied large industrial users, business/residential – mass market – load as well as gas-powered generators at relatively low prices. In this Chart of the week,...
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Low carbon generation
Chart of the week | LNG displaces gas interconnector imports
Since February, the UK’s gas interconnector imports are being displaced in the gas supply mix by a surge in LNG imports. Month-on-month the gas supply mix has changed, with interconnector imports and LNG send-out going from 4.6% and 17.0% of total gas supply in February, to 0.1% and 20.6% respectively...
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Low carbon generation
Chart of the week | Will LNG continue to steer the UK gas market in 2019?
The historically close relationship between oil prices and European gas contracts has been eroding in recent years, with the traditional price setting role of oil-indexed Russian gas contracts consequently having a decreasing impact on GB energy markets. In this weeks Chart of the Week we look at how Oil’s influence...
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Low carbon generation
Chart of the week | Will the wholesale bulls finally run out of steam?
In light of the continuing running of the bulls, this week’s Chart of the Week offers a wholesale market snapshot. It observes what has been driving recent power, gas and commodity prices. It then seeks to offer an outlook for this bullish momentum. Though the chart shows day-ahead gas and power prices...
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Home supply and services
Chart of the week | Score! Gas retail market “competitive”
Our Domestic market share survey highlighted for the first time that the gas retail market had dipped below the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). This index indicates a competitive market and used by the US Department of Justice. Two decades after the gas retail market was opened to competition it has now...
