VRE

  • Low carbon generation

    An investigation into REZ capacity factors during Victoria’s dark doldrums

    As the grid transitions to much higher levels of renewable penetration, the range of generation outcomes on any given day increases. The worst of these ranges are known as dark doldrums when there is a combination of poor conditions for wind and solar generation, usually a windless day in winter....

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Very Fast FCAS market is about to commence – a look at a possible time-of-day profile for R1

    On 9 October 2023, 1pm (market time), the dispatch of the new Very Fast (VF) FCAS market in the NEM will commence and will add two new markets for contingency FCAS, Raise 1 (R1) and Lower 1 (L1). AEMO has released a final industry go-live plan to keep track of...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    How long is the ‘Golden time of day’ for batteries?

    A key part of the business case for grid-scale standalone batteries is the arbitrage opportunity between low daytime wholesale prices (when renewable energy generation from solar is plentiful) and high evening prices (when the sun goes down and household demand ramps up quickly). The share of battery revenue coming from...

  • Low carbon generation

    MLF changes in NSW in the past decade

    MLF, short for Marginal Loss Factor, represents the portion of electricity losses that occur along the transmission network between a connection point and the Regional Reference Node (RRN). Within the NEM, the MLF serves as a metric to quantify these losses along the network, playing a pivotal role in determining...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Zap, Crackle, Pop! SA’s shocking electric dance party on the 11th

    Across the mainland states in the NEM, South Australia (SA) relies heavily on variable renewable energy (VRE) resources. SA is an excellent subject to test the premise “What if the wind doesn’t blow, and the sun doesn’t shine”? Negative spot prices persist in South Australia due to an abundant supply...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Polarisation of wholesale spot prices leads to opportunity for arbitrage services

    Over the last five financial years, South Australia has seen a significant increase in price volatility, with substantial portions of time both negative and above $250/MWh, leading to increasing opportunities for storage systems to provide arbitrage services. A number of events initiated the reduction in wholesale energy prices between $50/MWh...

  • Power and gas networks

    The Quest of the Ring: Will the Sydney Ring of Power unlock commercial viability of renewables?

    With the development of Renewable Energy Zones (REZs), the need for transmission augmentation arises to unlock the transfer of energy from Renewable Energy Zones to major load centres. This may subsequently increase the commercial viability of renewable generators within the Renewable Energy Zones, for example, by reducing plants’ technical curtailments...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    A taste of freedom for renewables with syncons in South Australia

    Today wind capacity in South Australia stands at 2500MW, contributing to almost 40% of the energy generation in the state. This is in addition to utility-scale solar and rooftop PV, which contribute 4% and 15% of total generation in SA, respectively. With such a high level of variable renewable energy...

  • Low carbon generation

    Loy Yang A closure: How much VRE and firming capacity is required to cover peak hours?

    AGL has accelerated the closure of the Loy Yang A power station for the second time in 2022, a few days after the Victorian government announced a target of 2.6 GW storage by 2030, increasing to 6.3 GW storage by 2035. According to the AGL announcement, released on 29 September,...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Seasonal frequency in the NEM: is VRE continuing to drive it?

    Frequency control remains a challenge for AEMO. New PFR (primary frequency response) provisions established in March 2020 will help AEMO to control frequency more efficiently. However, is it yet to be seen how market participants will be incentivised to participate in PFR market. In light of the rapid growth of...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Is the NEM going off schedule?

    Is the NEM getting harder to control with rising variable renewable generation and distributed photovoltaic growth? AEMO’s balancing of scheduled supply is critical to ensure the system remains stable and wholesale prices work efficiently. This Chart of the week briefly examines if the NEM is “on schedule” to meet this...

  • Regulation and policy

    “Behind-the-Connection-Point” A match made in heaven?

    The AEMC's new rule change for storage integration into the NEM provides more flexibility for hybrid systems and VRE owners to more effectively level their bids and participation into the market. This means, if the new rule takes place, hybrids can manage their own internal energy exchange behind the connection...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Houston, we have a transmission problem

    Variable Renewable Energy is making tremendous strides towards the predominant energy source in the NEM, but its voracious capital intensity is over-running existing transmission capacity. Consumers are faced with a $3.5bn transmission build cost over the next 20 years, which to return value relies heavily on the emergence of grid...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Victorian story of gas demand segments

    The Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) prices in Victoria have been on a rising trend since the start-up of LNG exports in 2015. Is this trend sustainable, given the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) forecasts an improved gas supply outlook with the new Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) expected to...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Dispatchable capacity – it’s a marathon AND a sprint

    For now, incumbent generators (like coal) will need to meet the NEM ramping requirements. Provided that coal remains online with the current dispatchable capacity, there is likely to be sufficient capacity in reserve to meet the ramping requirements of the system albeit in an incremental way (every five minutes). However,...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    I can be your hydro baby, I can ramp away the pain

    The recent suite of energy market reforms proposed by the Energy Security Board (ESB) has prompted much discussion about the type of capacity that needs to be procured in a future NEM that seems certain to have a very high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). In this Chart of...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Feeding the future NEM – Eat some now. Save some for later.

    As the NEM continues to transition towards increased penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE), the use of the word ‘curtailment’ has also increased. While curtailments have historically been a natural part of market outcomes (i.e. generators withholding capacity at higher price points), the increased prevalence of curtailment of VRE is...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Examining Victoria’s recent wind drought

    This ‘Chart of the week’ examines the recent spell of low wind generation in Victoria and associated elevated prices. Previously, ‘Chart of the week’ issue 78 highlights the risk of wind droughts within the National Electricity Market (NEM) due to the high correlation of wind fronts both within states and...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | VRE pays more as PFR helps reduce coal FCAS costs

    In our previous ‘Chart of the week’ in November 2020, we reviewed the increasing percentage of causer pays cost that solar generators bear due to their generation profiles and how this results in them paying significantly more of the causer pays cost as a ratio of the generation they provide. More than...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | 3 2 1… fight: VRE and price cannibalisation in NEM

    In the last decade, the rapid decline in deployment cost of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation capacity has given renewables an advantage over fossil fuels for new builds as highlighted in ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020’ report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In the report, Australia has...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Slow is smooth and smooth is fast for the NEM transition

    Reporting season is all but over for the energy majors in Australia and that has left us with a bevy of takeaways on the sentiment for the not-so-distant future. A key thread among reports has been the current low-price environment in the NEM. This is a topic that we have...

  • Power and gas networks

    Lower prices but a similar story for those setting the price

    2020 was one for the books with plenty of interesting events happening worldwide and also in the energy markets. For the NEM specifically, it was a time of significant changes in price outcomes compared to the previous years of comparatively higher prices. However, now comes the question of whether NEM...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian chart of the week | SA shatters record: lets talk about the elephant in the room…

    As springtime rolls around in the NEM, those with interest in the market are always keeping an eye on South Australia to see just how low operational demand will go and when (not so much if) the record will be broken. This year has not disappointed. On 11 October 2020...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Race to the bottom: Negative prices on the rise and spreading

    Negative prices are becoming a more frequent occurrence in the NEM as variable renewable energy (VRE) plays a larger role in the supply mix. Negative priced offers from generators form a large part of the MW capacity offered into the market. The negative prices we see in dispatch intervals reflects...