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Market research & Insight

Benchmark Power Curve Forecasts as of 30 April 2019

Tom Edwards Tom Edwards Senior Consultant

This report summarises the outputs from Cornwall Insight’s latest Benchmark Power Curve (BPC) for GB.

The BPC has been designed for lenders, equity investors, developers, operators, traders and financial advisors to support them in investment cases, budgeting, asset benchmarking and business planning
The BPC is a comprehensive market and asset-level power price modelling service that delivers long-term power price forecasts, informed by industry-leading regulatory, market and policy expertise, and supplemented with direct access to trusted practitioners (see Figure 1)

Cornwall Insight’s modelling has been developed using the industry-leading simulation software package, Plexos (by Energy Exemplar)

Subscribers to this service will benefit from:

Credible long-term ranges of future GB wholesale power prices
Captured wholesale power prices for different generation technologies
A transparent approach to detailing key modelling assumptions, inputs and drivers of value   
Modelling developed by a team of pre-eminent power market experts
Direct access to the modellers and team involved in producing the modelling and forecasts
The report provides:

20-year forecasts (including the current year) of GB wholesale power capture prices for a range of generating technologies including offshore and onshore wind, solar PV, CCGT, coal and gas reciprocating engines
Four scenarios presented throughout the report which are themed around the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios (FES) to illustrate pathways to the future. These are: Steady Progression, Community Renewables, Consumer Evolution and Two Degrees
20-year forecasts of GB Capacity Market clearing prices
Views on the future capacity and generation mix
All figures shown are in real 2019-20 money (£)
All numbers/ figures are based on Cornwall Insight modelling, except where explicitly referenced
A supplementary spreadsheet accompanies this report which provides the forecast numbers for power prices

The report is also supplemented by a Methodology Document which includes more information on underlying assumptions such as power demand, commodity prices and capital costs

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