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Benchmark Power Curve Service: Methodology Document May 2019

Tom Musker Tom Musker Senior Modeler

Cornwall Insight's Benchmark Power Curve ( CI BPC) is a comprehensive market and asset-level power price modelling service that delivers long-term price forecasts, informed by industry-leading regulatory, market and policy expertise, and supplemented with direct access to trusted practitioners.

An overview of the CI BPC

The CI BPC service has been designed with customers in mind, allowing for ease of integration of data outputs with your own models. The service has also been designed to address widespread concerns about the drift between typical power price modelling and real-life market practice, and the lack of adequate explanation of why long-term price forecasts change. The CI BPC service includes:

Ease of integration
Data outputs can be simply integrated with financial modelling and business plan templates.

Regular explanation and context setting
A quarterly report with revised forecasts and explanations of changes, risk assessment and sensitivities. Coverage includes regulatory developments, policy direction and the development of network charging principles, delivering a comprehensive yet focussed outlook on the prospects for the GB wholesale power market.

Direct engagement on model results and interpretation
Cornwall Insight’s team of experts provide a wrap-around support service to assist with the interpretation of results. Bi-annual user group forums enable greater stakeholder understanding and engagement with the modelling process and development.

Key components of the CI BPC

Range of credible forecasts
Scenario-based “Central, High and Low” 20-year projections of electricity prices in Great Britain (GB). Coverage includes baseload and peak prices at a market level to capture the difference in value between typical wholesale markets. Prices are presented in real values of the day and at quarterly granularity.

The scenarios are not snap-shots based on current market structure, but capture the rapidly changing market landscape with greater renewables, flexibility, interconnection with European markets and growth of electric vehicles (EV).

Capture of different power market assets
Price curves are published for different technologies, fully reflecting price and value-capture based on the different operating and load profiles of various types of power assets.

Integrated approach to the market
The modelling captures the effect of location on the behaviour of small-scale capacity in the distribution networks. The model also integrates balancing market, capacity market, gas, coal, and carbon forecasts.

For more information please contact Ben Hall on 01603 604400 or email b.hall@cornwall-insight.com

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