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09 January 2018

The third quarter (Q417, October-December 2017) of year eight of the FiT scheme (1 April 2017 – 31 March 2018) has now ended. Our Monthly update looks at capacity and installation developments across the three months of this quarter, and how FiT costs might be impacted. Ofgem will send out invoices to relevant suppliers on 24 January 2017 for the fourth quarterly levelisation of FiT year eight . A total of 5,898MW across 813,714 installations was accredited to the FiT scheme to 31 December 2017. In our Q417 FiT Cost Forecast, we projected that capacity by the end of Q417 would reach 5,940MW (Central Scenario). Capacity at the end of the Q417 was therefore 42MW below our Central Scenario, with 54MW was accredited in Q417, down on the previous year, 16MW accredited in October 2017, 29MW in November 2017, and 10MW in December 2017.  5,711 installations were accredited in Q417, 2,105 accredited in October 2017, 2,143 accredited in November 2017, and 1,463 were accredited in December 2017. New installations have continued at a slowed pace on previous years, largely due to the implementation of lower tariff rates and deployment caps which came into effect on 8 February 2016. 190 hours of sunshine have been recorded in Q417, 3.1% above the long-term average of 184 hours. Solar load factors were marginally down in Q417 compared to the same quarter the previous year, in contrast, wind load factors were up significantly on the previous year. Our Central Scenario of FiT costs is £4.77/MWh for Q417 levelisation. Our Low Scenario of FiT costs for Q417 is £4.37/MWh, and our High Scenario is £5.17/MWh.

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