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Q118 Feed-in Tariff Forecast

This is Cornwall's Q118 Feed-in Tariff Cost Forecast, published on 15 February 2018. It forecasts “recycling” costs to electricity suppliers of the microgeneration Feed-in Tariff scheme by quarter for the period from 1 January 2018 to 31March 2022. In the Q417 forecast, we projected FiT costs for Q417 (1 October 2017- 31 December 2017) in the range £4.37/MWh – £5.17/MWh. Outturn costs came to £4.57/MWh, £0.20/Wh below our Central Scenario. Slightly lower costs were due to low load factors for embedded solar PV, and higher outturn demand. Looking ahead, we now publish a five-year forecast, taking our figures out to the first quarter of 2022 (Q122). Our 2017-18 demand forecast has changed, it is now forecast at 283.2TWh, 0.2% higher than our previous forecast due to a higher-than-expected outturn for Q417. Key scheme developments over the last quarter have included Ofgem’s confirmation that the FiT export and generation tariffs will increase by 4.1% in line with the Retail Price Index (RPI) rate of inflation for the year 2018-19, higher than previously estimated. The government’s Autumn Budget confirmed that the Feed-in Tariff will close to new accreditations by the end of March 2019, something which was alluded to in the government’s Clean Growth Strategy.   We provide an update on the status of, and a separate forecast for, Energy Intensive Industry exemptions. Ofgem data shows a total of 5,898MW was accredited to the FiT scheme at 31 December 2017. The next monthly update of the Quarterly FiT ...

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