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Green Certificate Survey results | high availability, low demand, low prices

Tom Andrews Tom Andrews Senior Consulting Analyst
29th July 2020

The value for Green Certificates has fallen dramatically according to our quarterly Green Certificate Survey. The survey takes a snapshot of the Green Certificate market providing pricing views and trends for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin (RGGO) certificate markets.

Fifty organisations across the industry responded to our survey, which found that the average value for electricity certificates is now more than one-third lower than the previous quarter, with REGO certificates dipping below 30p. Green Gas Certificates have held their value better than their electric counterparts, but the average prices have also fallen.

The fall in value for these certificates was due in part to the excellent conditions for renewable technologies, which resulted in above-average generation for the quarter. With renewable generation up, there was an increase in the availability of Green Certificates on the market. Now, this would not necessarily lead to a significant fall in value; however, this period of good conditions for renewable generation coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a result of the lockdown in GB, electricity demand fell by 18% on average in April. This meant that there was a high availability but a reduced demand for Green Certificates, causing the price to plummet. It is no surprise then that 71% of respondents to the survey thought COVID-19 had a negative effect on REGO prices.

However, it is not all doom and gloom; the overall sentiment amongst the respondents was that the values are expected to rebound as the economy recovers from COVID-19. When asked how long they thought the depressive effects would last, over a third predicted that they would continue for at least 6-12 months. However, 21% of those surveyed were slightly more pessimistic, believing that these impacts may last significantly longer than that.

How fast these prices will be able to be rebound will be mostly dependent on how quickly the economy recovers, particularly as energy demand is intrinsically linked to economic activity.

About the Green Certificate Survey

Cornwall Insight’s latest green certificate market survey is designed to provide greater market transparency on all green certificates. The survey results offer aggregated views on pricing levels, demand and supply trends and sentiment on the future market trajectory.

To purchase the survey, please click here. Participants receive the survey results for free.

The next survey will run in October 2020; please contact Tom Andrews at t.andrews@cornwall-insight.com if you would like to take part.

Please note all responses will be anonymised, and opinions of individuals or companies will not be identifiable.