Another winter of discontent? What happens to the UK this winter, and next, if the gas taps from Russia stay turned off?

Substantial reductions in Russian gas supply to Europe and increased global competition for LNG cargoes have resulted in substantially elevated gas prices for the UK this winter (2022-23) compared to the historical norm. Our forecasts indicate that this could not be a single winter problem, with tight supply and high prices for gas likely to be a feature of next winter (2023-24) as well.

Our report discusses the drivers of UK gas prices both this winter and next alongside our short and long-term gas price forecasts.

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