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Chart of the Week

2020

The pipeline for CfD AR4: Who, where, when?

James Brabben Wholesale Manager

With the potential reinstatement of ‘Pot 1’ technologies in the next Contracts for Difference (CfD) Allocation Round 4 (AR4) in 2021, this Chart of the Week takes a look at the pipeline of renewables projects most likely to enter the auction. Drawing upon research in our new service The Renewables Pipeline Tracker, we show a heat map of site locations by capacity for potential AR4 bidders. This is calculated through: Filtering our calculated total pipeline of over 37GW across 800+ sites into those “most likely” to bid These “most likely” are categorised as all CfD eligible technologies which have applied for or gained planning permission, or re-applied for and gained permission, post all subsidy scheme changes and closures. Effectively, this is from early 2019 onwards In our view, these projects are most likely to be competitive in the auction, as prior to the recent BEIS announcements they would have been aiming to operate subsidy-free anyway A separate calculation is made for offshore wind, with all sites likely to be able to build by the delivery years of the next round, likely 2024 to 2026, included From this, we use our database and wider data sources to place sites by their location against regions, specifically in relation to network connections The differing scales of projects means there will be a mix of transmission and distribution connections, but our map groups these to align to the 14 distribution regions in order to visually display all of the data on one map Concentrations in each ...

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