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Chart of the Week

2021

Price trends for Renewables Gas Guarantees of Origins

Luke Ansell Analyst

In May 2021 we published the findings from our latest quarterly Green Certificates Survey. The survey is designed to provide greater market transparency for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Continental Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin (RGGO) certificate markets. It provides aggregated views on certificate pricing levels, demand and supply trends, and sentiment on the future market trajectory. 58 distinct organisations participated in the latest survey, of which 35 traded in REGOs, 29 in RGGOs and 22 in GoOs. This ‘Chart of the week’ looks at survey participants’ views on RGGO prices, taking a snapshot from our recent surveys. Figure 1 shows the average RGGO price reported by survey respondents in our last five issues, specifically looking at certificates produced in 2019 and 2020. There are two independent certification schemes for green gas; the Biomethane Certification Scheme (BMCS) and the Green Gas Certification Scheme (GGCS). Under the GGCS, RGGOs have expiry dates 3 years and 3 months after issue, giving more value to later-dated RGGOs. In our March 2020 survey, undertaken before the first lockdown, respondents reported average RGGO prices of £8.20/MWh and £8.35/MWh for 2019 and 2020 vintages respectively. The pandemic saw RGGO prices fall, though not to the same extent as the drop observed in REGO values, with demand for gas curtailed to a lesser extent than electricity demand during the first lockdown. Reported prices saw a slight uptick in the October 2020 survey, before falling again in the following two surveys. Compared to March 2020, reported prices in our most recent survey ...

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