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Great Britain Benchmark Power Curve

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Coverage of Great Britain

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Updated quarterly

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Debrief sessions

A comprehensive Great Britain energy market power price modelling service that delivers long-term, wholesale, 30-year price forecasts informed by our significant market, policy and regulatory expertise, updated on a quarterly basis.

Overview

The Great Britain Benchmark Power Curve is a comprehensive power price modelling service, providing market and technology-specific forecasts.

It delivers long-term 30-year price forecasts, informed by significant market, policy, and regulatory expertise, along with direct access to our experts.

The curve forecasts three scenarios (high, medium, low), based on National Grid’s Future Energy scenarios and which are based on variability in the market – things like volatility, renewable deployment, regulatory and policy change etc. The model uses Plexos software and provides a generation weighted capture price forecast for technologies including offshore/onshore wind, solar, CCGT, OCGT, tidal, pumped hydro, battery storage etc, as well as baseload and demand. It also covers associated natural gas, coal and carbon price forecasts, and the forecast goes down to a monthly granularity.

The Great Britain Benchmark Power Curve is a comprehensive power price modelling service, providing market and technology-specific forecasts.

It delivers long-term 30-year price forecasts, informed by significant market, policy, and regulatory expertise, along with direct access to our experts.

The curve forecasts three scenarios (high, medium, low), based on National Grid’s Future Energy scenarios and which are based on variability in the market – things like volatility, renewable deployment, regulatory and policy change etc. The model uses Plexos software and provides a generation weighted capture price forecast for technologies including offshore/onshore wind, solar, CCGT, OCGT, tidal, pumped hydro, battery storage etc, as well as baseload and demand. It also covers associated natural gas, coal and carbon price forecasts, and the forecast goes down to a monthly granularity.

What's included in the Great Britain Benchmark Power Curve service?

This is part of our power revenue forecasting service, which offers complete coverage and insight across power revenue streams available for generation and storage assets.

  • 30-year forecasts of GB captured wholesale power prices for generating technologies
  • Three scenarios presented (Central, High & Low) covering credible outcomes for policy, regulation, technology mix, and commodity price developments informed by in-depth and extensive market research
  • Forecasts are underpinned by leading modelling practises for capacity planning and dispatch utilising the latest PLEXOS software
  • Models are calibrated to the traded market
  • Forecasts are consistent with our practical expertise in real market operations

What are the benefits of this service?

Our comprehensive service offers regular price and value monitoring of key revenue streams.

  • Understand the range of credible long-term electricity prices captured by different technologies
  • Incorporate asset-level revenue forecasts into project/portfolio financial models to support investment cases, budgeting, asset benchmarking and business planning
  • Mitigate risk arising from changes to regulation, policy and the prevailing market conditions
  • Benchmark and assess the value delivered by different routes to market

The Great Britain Benchmark Power Curve is a comprehensive power price modelling service, providing market and technology-specific forecasts.

It delivers long-term 30-year price forecasts, informed by significant market, policy, and regulatory expertise, along with direct access to our experts.

The curve forecasts three scenarios (high, medium, low), based on National Grid’s Future Energy scenarios and which are based on variability in the market – things like volatility, renewable deployment, regulatory and policy change etc. The model uses Plexos software and provides a generation weighted capture price forecast for technologies including offshore/onshore wind, solar, CCGT, OCGT, tidal, pumped hydro, battery storage etc, as well as baseload and demand. It also covers associated natural gas, coal and carbon price forecasts, and the forecast goes down to a monthly granularity.

What's included in the Great Britain Benchmark Power Curve service?

This is part of our power revenue forecasting service, which offers complete coverage and insight across power revenue streams available for generation and storage assets.

  • 30-year forecasts of GB captured wholesale power prices for generating technologies
  • Three scenarios presented (Central, High & Low) covering credible outcomes for policy, regulation, technology mix, and commodity price developments informed by in-depth and extensive market research
  • Forecasts are underpinned by leading modelling practises for capacity planning and dispatch utilising the latest PLEXOS software
  • Models are calibrated to the traded market
  • Forecasts are consistent with our practical expertise in real market operations

What are the benefits of this service?

Our comprehensive service offers regular price and value monitoring of key revenue streams.

  • Understand the range of credible long-term electricity prices captured by different technologies
  • Incorporate asset-level revenue forecasts into project/portfolio financial models to support investment cases, budgeting, asset benchmarking and business planning
  • Mitigate risk arising from changes to regulation, policy and the prevailing market conditions
  • Benchmark and assess the value delivered by different routes to market
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Ben Reade

Senior Business Development Manager

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