New South Wales REZ outlook

From Cornwall Insight Australia’s Energy Market Perspective

Our quarterly Energy Market Perspective contains an analysis of indicative capacity at REZ zones throughout the NEM.  The following assessment for NSW is from our latest edition.

The strategic development of Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) in New South Wales (NSW) is currently focused on three key areas: Central West Orana (CWO), New England, and Southwest. These regions are anticipated to serve as hubs for substantial growth in renewable energy, accompanied by extensive network expansion in the coming years.

CWO takes centre stage in the NSW Government’s REZ rollout, featuring numerous proposed generators, albeit uncertain about the likelihood of all projects proceeding. In the face of challenges in other regions to secure available capacity, CWO emerges as a primary option until additional augmentation measures are implemented. Establishing a 500kV ring is poised to enhance the security of Sydney’s energy supply, creating diverse routes from collector points at Wollar. EnergyCo’s ambitious proposal includes an initial stage with 4.5GW capacity, which is expected to be commissioned and operational by 2027/28.

Additionally, with the commitment to Project EnergyConnect, some capacity in the South West REZ will become available, while contributions from KerangLink and Hume Link are anticipated to contribute to increased capacity. Despite facing current capacity constraints and system strength issues, ongoing upgrades are actively addressing these challenges in the Southwest.

In New England, an oversupply of generated energy has led to the inclusion of a transmission link in the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP) with an intended capacity of 8GW. Despite private proposals, actual transmission projects have yet to commence in the area. Furthermore, the construction of Hume Link holds the potential to unlock a significant capacity in Wagga Wagga.

Meanwhile, endowed with abundant solar resources, Broken Hill encounters grid connectivity challenges with a single line to the Buronga area in the West Murray Zone. Presently, a Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T) is underway by Transgrid, exploring augmentation options to replace diesel turbine backup generators. Non-network alternatives, including storage solutions in Broken Hill, are actively under consideration.

NSW REZ outlook (indicative)

Related thinking

Regulation and policy

Calm after the storm although transition begins to lag | 2023 year in review

This year saw a return to relative calmness after the energy shocks of last year, while governments are playing an increasing role as the rate of new renewable generation lags. Spot pricing was subdued compared to last year, with no significant unexpected outages that caused sustained price spikes. Higher levels...

Announcement

Offshore wind now appears in latest ISP

The ISP also forecasts that greater flexible gas generation is needed From Cornwall Insight Australia's Energy Market Alerts service Offshore wind officially appears in the draft 2024 ISP due to state-based offshore wind targets. Figure 1 below from our latest Energy Market Alert, shows the variance in forecast generation between...

Announcement

Very Fast FCAS markets in the NEM

Cornwall Insight Australia released the latest Frequency Control Ancillary Service (FCAS) price curves for Q4 2023. The two new Very Fast FCAS markets have begun, and with this report, Cornwall Insight Australia explores how they’re evolving and what the future outlook of these markets holds. Detailing a full 20-year interval...

Commercial and market outlook

Latest Benchmark power curve insight

Cornwall Insight Australia has released our latest NEM Benchmark power curve (NEM BPC) for Q4 2023 to our subscribers. Our latest edition includes Marinus Link, ESSO constraints and other updates. We have released a free excerpt, which you can access below.The Federal Government has announced a partnership with the Marinus Link...

Announcement

Capacity Investment Scheme boosted from 6GW to 32GW

From Cornwall Insight Australia's Energy Market Alerts service Last Friday, the Commonwealth announced a major boost to the Capacity Investment Scheme, with the scheme now expected to deliver 32GW (combination of 9GW firming capacity and 23GW renewable generation) – up from 6GW. Cornwall Insight Australia has released an Energy Market...

Announcement

What are Australia’s emissions reduction targets?

From Cornwall Insight Australia's Energy Market Alerts service Energy laws have now been amended to incorporate an emissions reduction objective alongside the other objectives. The list of targets that the market bodies will need to consider is listed in a separately published Targets Statement. The targets currently listed cover both...

Announcement

Energy prices tumble in October

From Cornwall Insight Australia’s NEM Market Analysis report With over 700 GWh of rooftop PV added to the NEM since October last year, records were again set in NEM minimum demands along with a high instantaneous renewable penetration within the grid of 71.4%. Once again, the month’s main story was...

Announcement

Emissions intensity drops for October 2023

From Cornwall Insight Australia’s NEM Market Analysis report This October saw a 12.6% reduction in total emissions (accounting for -1.18 Mt CO2-e reduction) as solar and wind generation has increased significantly. The reduction in emissions may continue with the arrival of Fly Creek and Rye Park wind farms expected soon...