Coming the long way: wind forecast and imbalance prices

Last week wind generation accounted for 56% of the generation mix on an all-island basis. The market also saw significant volatility in the Balancing Market (BM), with the Single Electricity Market Operator (SEMO) receiving pricing disputes related to early trading in the BM.

While there has been much discussion about the volatility arising in imbalance settlement, there is an interaction with System Operator (SO) forecasting that has been neglected in the public discussion to date.

In this week’s blog, we look back at EirGrid’s wind forecast performance in 2018 and highlight the impact that this trend could have on imbalance prices in I-SEM.

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