Domestic retail price cap predictor

Our Domestic retail price cap predictor forecasts Ofgem’s default tariff cap and examines the key drivers affecting the level of the cap, and – in turn – household energy bills.

It uses our in-house modelling of non-energy costs – such as policy levies and network costs – alongside a view of the wholesale market in conjunction with our broader modelling of the energy market, applying the same underlying approach as the regulator itself. Our forecasts cover the period to the end of 2030, presenting our view of the cap for each individual quarter, helping you to formulate financial plans.

Since April 2017, price capping in the domestic retail energy market has set a maximum that energy suppliers can charge customers on certain types of tariffs. Capping sets maximum prices by customer type and region every three months, according to a methodology that covers suppliers’ expected costs and margins. While recent short-term government intervention has set additional limits on the amount suppliers can charge, the cap remains an integral benchmark for industry stakeholders, as well as government and press alike.  

Applying our detailed industry knowledge with Ofgem’s templates, our forecasts are issued each quarter in advance of Ofgem’s own announcements, with interim updates provided at the half-way point of each cap period. You will receive pre-populated MS Excel files and a short summary report every quarter.

Each update of the forecasts will be accompanied by an analysis of any changes to the forecasts, so you can understand where the energy price caps are heading and the key drivers behind their change.

As a part of the ‘Domestic retail price cap predictor‘ package, you will receive a subscription to Cornwall Insight’s ‘Third-party charges report’. This report provides you with a five-year outlook for domestic and business customers looking at network, policy and smart metering costs for both electricity and gas.

Key benefits

  • In-depth understanding of the drivers behind energy bills
  • Independent reference point for domestic energy tariffs
  • Regular updates underpinned by Cornwall Insight’s industry-leading modelling

Who is it for?

  • Suppliers
  • Policymakers
  • Regulators
  • Consumer groups
  • Intermediaries and industry service providers
  • Banks, investors and financial advisors

For more information about the report and other similar products, please, get in touch by contacting us on

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