Chart of the week
Our complimentary Charts of the week analyse the latest news and updates in the energy industry. The articles offer a visual way of understanding complex issues and are complemented by our expert’s analysis.
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Categories
Latest Charts of the week
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Commercial and market outlook
VNI West selected path; an incentive for delaying coal retirements?
On 29 May 2023, AEMO published a conclusions report on the VNI West Project. According to the report, option 5A (a variant of AEMO’s preferred option in a previous consultation paper) is preferred for VNI West. In option 5A, the transmission line crosses the Murray River north of Kerang (Wamba...
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Commercial and market outlook
Spot the spread: Are current battery revenues enough to encourage further investment?
In AEMO’s ‘Step Change’ scenario, it was estimated that storage capacity in the NEM would need to increase by a factor of 30 between 2022 and 2050 to support a grid transformation that limits temperature rises below 2 degrees. This represents about 13GW of new storage capacity by 2030 and...
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Power and gas networks
Trouble Ahead? – What’s Next For TNUoS Charges?
Some industry participants will be well versed in the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charging regime, while others may not have had to engage with it before. Regardless of previous involvement, these charges are becoming increasingly important to understand for reasons we will discuss shortly. In this week’s ‘Chart...
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Commercial and market outlook
Feast or famine? FCAS costs in South Australia
Frequency Control Ancillary Service (FCAS) prices are highly volatile, at times resulting in short periods of extremely high FCAS cost. Three such events in recent history are the South Australian (SA) islanding events in November 2019, February 2020, and November 2022. During these events, FCAS costs in SA totalled $16...
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Business supply and services
Are Falling Wholesale Energy Prices Good News For The Wider Economy?
A lot has happened in the last year. Challenging trading conditions across the economy have been exacerbated by extremely high energy prices. In this week's 'Chart of the week' we look at the business landscape using trends from a range of economic indicators.
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Low carbon generation
NSW’s transition to a new era: What will replace Eraring?
After 52 years of operation, the NSW Liddell power station officially shut down last 28 April. With Liddell’s closure, NSW’s transition to a green energy future is in full swing. First announced in 2015, NSW had seven years to ensure there is enough replacement capacity once Liddell is retired. Since...
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Heat networks
How to develop a heat networks market? Key opportunities presented by regulation and policy
In order to achieve the UK target of reaching net zero by 2050 there is a significant need to decarbonise the heating sector, with heat networks expected to be a key solution to decarbonise heating in urban areas. In this week's 'Chart of the week' we explore the current distribution...
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Commercial and market outlook
It’s the Liddell things that matter
Australia’s oldest coal-fired power plant Liddell retired completely in the last week of April 2023 after 52 years. This giant of AGL, which had a total registered capacity of 2,000 MW, operationally acted as a 1600MW station and 1200MW after the closure of its third unit. Australia’s transition to clean...
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E-mobility and low carbon
Final Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate ups headline ambition – and adds flexibility provisions for manufacturers
One of the key updates from the government’s “green day” last month was a consultation on the final design of the UK’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. Coming into force next year, the mandate will set annual targets for vehicle manufacturers to meet, increasing the proportions of ZEVs in their...
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Energy storage and flexibility
A look at AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts over the last year
The Energy Security Board (ESB), under the direction of the National Cabinet, is currently working on a number of changes that will impact how generators connect to and operate within the National Electricity Market (NEM). The Congestion Relief Market (CRM) model is one such change to how the NEM currently...
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Water
Furthering clarity and capacity: The UK increase low-carbon hydrogen commitments
In this third instalment of our Low-carbon Hydrogen Index, which tracks the progress of 14 nations in their commitment to develop a low-carbon hydrogen economy, we discuss the top countries in the index. See how the rankings have changed since we last released our Low-carbon Hydrogen Index in March 2022.
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Commercial and market outlook
Iceman Liddell calls it a career
Recently in the news, there has been some concern that the closure of the Liddell power station in NSW will be a repeat of what we witnessed in 2017 with the closure of Hazelwood. Hazelwood’s closure led to higher prices, particularly over summer peak demand periods1. This is a poor...
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Net zero corporates and ESG
Is rapid decarbonisation of healthcare possible?
Multiple sectors sourcing low carbon energy will be an essential component of reaching the UK’s net zero emissions goals. Healthcare will be a critical partner in tackling climate change due to their reliance on processes that generate greenhouse gases. As an illustration of energy intensity in health, NHS England uses...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Exploring the impact of storage assets on QEJP sensitivities
Battery storage has great potential to generate high revenues during large market shifts, especially in Queensland (as shown in our previous analysis in Cotw #158). The Queensland government’s recently announced Energy and Jobs Plan (QEJP) would be another big shift as it aims to reduce the state’s reliance on generation...
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Commercial and market outlook
Patriots ‘Dynasty’ off to a rough start, as New England suffers loss to the MLFs…
For many, the first of April is marked in calendars as a day for jokes and silly nuisances. For the few, specifically the energy industry, we have it pencilled in for the release of the upcoming year’s Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs). Over the last half-decade, movements in MLFs have received...
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Power and gas networks
Forced imports: VIC-NSW interconnector summer moonwalk?
A lot has been written recently about how the energy transition is lagging behind the required installed capacity needed to deliver on our net-zero future. We also know that the connection of new generation requires significant investment into additional transmission infrastructure (or other non-network solutions) and that this needs to...
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Home supply and services
Domestic Suppliers Smart Meter Targets Updated For 2023
As part of its Mid-Year Review, the government is consulting on the Smart Meter Targets Framework for Year 3 (2024) and Year 4 (2025) of the revised smart meter rollout, setting out energy supplier annual smart meter installation targets on a trajectory to 100% coverage by the end of 2025....
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Energy storage and flexibility
Navigating the Changing Landscape of Balancing Services Pricing Developments
From an energy market perspective, 2022 was an especially interesting year as geopolitical events pushed Europe’s energy sector out of the status-quo and into uncertain and uncharted territory. While most of the attention remained focused on developments within the wholesale sphere, interesting developments arose within the balancing services space too....
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Power and gas networks
Will we run out of gas this winter?
In unfavourable conditions, gas shortfalls on peak days this winter are a distinct possibility highlighted by AEMO’s 2023 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO). The GSOO is released yearly and provides a forecast of the adequacy of east coast gas supplies based on demand forecasts. The GSOO can highlight to the...
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Business supply and services
Average gas and power prices for SMEs declined sharply in February
From late 2021, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) looking to secure a fixed energy contract would have seen steep increases in their energy bills, driven primarily by price volatility in the wholesale energy markets. In this week’s 'Chart of the week', we discuss the changes in prices for SMEs up...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Turning Japanese: Typical power price spreads in Japan
Cornwall Insight has been supporting customers in the Japanese market for some time now. This Chart of the week explores the daily spreads seen in recent quarters and why a number of international players are turning to Japan. The Japanese market has experienced substantial volatility in recent quarters. The island...
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E-mobility and low carbon
Taking charge: are they ready? Local authority charging infrastructure plans
Electric vehicle (EV) uptake and public charge point installs have increased rapidly over the last few years, but to support the next wave of EV drivers, the public charging network needs to be improved. Government has outlined the leading role it expects from local authorities (LAs) in planning and delivering...
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Commercial and market outlook
Prices soar in the west
For the first time in the history of the Western Australian Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), the balancing price reached the maximum price limit of $1,018/MWh between 5:30pm and 7:30pm on Tuesday, 29 November 2022. This came one month after the state-owned Muja C Unit 5 coal power station was closed....
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Energy storage and flexibility
Out with the old, in with the new: T-4 Capacity Market clears at record price
On 21 February, the T-4 Capacity Market auction for Delivery Year 2026-27 cleared at a record high price of £63.00/kW/year, procuring 43,000.955MW of capacity. In this week’s 'Chart of the week', we explore the key takeaways from the auction.
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Energy storage and flexibility
A pebble in the water makes a ripple effect…
At demand levels averaging only ~200-700MW, FCAS markets are dwarfed by the ~20,000MW energy demand in the NEM. Nonetheless, with 8 different markets to participate in, the potential value that participating in FCAS can add to a participant's revenue should not be underestimated. In this Chart of the week, we...
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Power and gas networks
Push to meet renewables targets intensifies charging differences in GB
Higher transmission costs for generators in Scotland have been a feature of the GB electricity market since the introduction of cost reflective pricing, but with the ambition to increase generation levels from offshore and onshore wind and meet Net Zero generation targets, this is likely to increase. In this week’s...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Delays to NEM connections and accurate forecasts
AEMO is currently consulting on its methodology for reliability forecasting in the NEM, and among their proposed changes is an adjustment to the inclusion of projected new capacity. The existing assumptions are being examined due to two factors; Most new connections in the NEM assume that the time taken to...
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Business supply and services
Supplier of Last Resort true-ups confirmed by Ofgem
Ofgem has published its decision documents confirming the Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) true-up claims submitted by energy suppliers and the amounts it has agreed as part of their SoLR levy claim. In this week’s 'Chart of the week', we review the SoLR true-up claims.
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Energy storage and flexibility
Crying over spilled solar – how much can a battery help?
A standalone battery earns its revenue not only from the arbitrage opportunity between day and night prices but also from participation in FCAS markets. This remains true when the battery is paired with a solar farm but can be complicated by constraints or trade-offs between FCAS participation and solar export....
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Business supply and services
Concentration and consolidation in the I&C gas market
Throughout 2021 and well into 2022, energy suppliers operating in the business gas market were contending with a number of challenges, including reduction in energy demand from businesses as recovery from COVID-19 ‘lockdowns’ was ongoing and weathering volatile wholesale prices. In this week’s 'Chart of the week', we discuss the...
