Power revenue forecasting

Cornwall Insight’s power revenue forecasting service offers complete coverage and insight across all revenue streams available for a low carbon generation asset. Our comprehensive service offers customers regular price and value monitoring of key revenue streams. This service will help you:

  • Maximise your commercial position
  • Understand the changing charging regimes and how they could impact you
  • Build a comprehensive business case
  • Mitigate risks and understand how revenues and costs will change going forward

The service includes:

Benchmark Power Curve

Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Wholesale Power Curve presents a 25-year, scenario-based projection of the range of electricity price outcomes that support and inform financial and operational strategies. It includes:

• 25-year generation weighted capture price forecasts for CCGT, OCGT, onshore and offshore wind, and solar power technologies
• Associated natural gas, coal and carbon price (covering EU ETS and CPS) forecasts
• Capacity Market clearing prices with detailed locational distributed generation modelling across the GB market
• Quarterly update and assessment report with the latest outlook, together with details of underlying changes, risk and sensitivities
• Three scenarios correlating with National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios

Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges forecast

This new forecast, updated twice a year, provides a long-term forecast of expected costs and revenues from electricity transmission network use of system (TNUoS) charging. Through our independent power market modelling we also assess key drivers such as regulatory modifications and the generation mix. The report provides subscribers with the ability to understand the trajectory of TNUoS costs and revenues beyond the horizon of current public forecasts, allowing you to integrate these into budgets and business plans. The forecast builds on our long-standing work creating bespoke TNUoS forecasts for generator business cases, due diligence and cost assessments with these expert views and modelling capabilities incorporated into the service.

The Embedded Benefits calculator

This provides you with a simple tool to understand the value of embedded benefits earned from local power generation. With the ability to tailor the calculator to your project, it will allow you to quickly establish the value of embedded benefits and compare this to what is received under a power purchase agreement. The model calculates embedded benefits for 5 years including the current period, starting from the previous April, when annually published rates are issued. It also allows for some scenarios to account for the network charging reforms currently being progressed by Ofgem.

Capacity Market

Our Capacity Market Forecast details clearing prices for upcoming T-1 and T-4 auctions, which will allow you to better formulate your business’s bidding strategy as well as understand the values that could be achieved through this revenue stream. Our updates throughout the year will inform you of key changes to scheme rules as well as information on the pre-qualified and fully qualified plant. Additionally, you will receive our analysis of each set of auction results.

Green Certificates survey

This Survey provides detailed analysis and the results from our quarterly survey of market participants active across green certificate markets. The survey is designed to provide greater market transparency for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Continental Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin (RGGO) certificate markets. Green Certificate markets are notoriously opaque, and the subscription report provides visibility of the prices being realised across certificates markets, as well as insight on the market forces driving changes in certificate value.

The results outline a snapshot of current pricing and demand trends, aggregated across a typical range of 35-45 participants, which covers the full spectrum of generators, suppliers, and trader/ brokers. Aggregated price views are compared against real-world auction price data from two of the leading trading platforms for REGOs.

Should your portfolio include Renewable Obligation (Roc-accredited) assets, we also have long-term and short-term Roc forecasts available.

Please contact us to find out more