Chart of the week
Our complimentary Charts of the week analyse the latest news and updates in the energy industry. The articles offer a visual way of understanding complex issues and are complemented by our expert’s analysis.
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Categories
Latest Charts of the week
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Power and gas networks
Full house – launch of Dynamic Moderation completes National Grid’s response toolkit
National Grid ESO’s (NGESO) Dynamic Moderation (DM) service launched on the 6 April, with the first auction held at 14:30 on the EPEX platform. DM is the third and final new frequency response product that the ESO has introduced to better manage frequency deviations in a high-renewables grid. This 'Chart...
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Commercial and market outlook
Winter is coming: MT PASA scheduled coal outages for winter?
The number of thermal generator problems continues to grow, and so does peak time volatility in the two northern states. On top of the closure of Unit 3 at Liddell occurring on 1 April and Unit 4 at Callide C still out without a public resolution, outages and problems have...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Chart of the week | The summer of our discontent?
Wholesale power and gas prices have surged significantly in the past year and have been highly volatile alongside rapidly unfolding geopolitical events. This summer, the overall direction of energy prices could move in a number of ways, dependent on further sanctions and counter-sanctions between Russia and the West, as well...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Hydrogen hype: How cheap the hydrogen from electrolysis can be?
Hydrogen is considered a potential replacement for fossil fuels for energy generation, transport etc. Currently, 96% of hydrogen production originates from fossil fuels through steam reforming and coal gasifications. Only a small fraction (~4%) is produced via electrolysis. The high Capex of the electrolyser is usually referred to as the...
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Home supply and services
“The more [retailers] we come across, the more problems we see”
Thirty-one retailers have gone bust since the start of 2021 in the UK. At least one of those entities has a subsidiary in the Australian market (having yet to acquire any customers, according to the most recent AER and ESC data). In this Chart of the week, we take a...
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Home supply and services
Switching duck: electricity switches to remain subdued in the near future
In November 2021, switching levels plummeted in response to rising tariff prices and a lack of market choice. By January 2022, domestic switching reached its lowest level on record, falling 80% on January 2021. This 'Chart of the week' checks in with the options, if any, available to households wanting...
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Commercial and market outlook
Nobody said it was easy, but it’s time for us to part: VIC’s climate targets & coal
In 2017, the Victorian Government legislated a state target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Since then, short-term targets have been set in five-year increments, with the 2030 target being to cut emissions by 45-50% below 2005 levels. The Government is currently consulting on the 2035 target, which must...
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Commercial and market outlook
BSUoS charges: volatility, deferral and reform
Over the last few years Balancing Services Use of System (BSUoS) charges have experienced significant volatility, with costs reaching record high levels which have added to the rise in consumer electricity bills and ultimately resulted in intervention in order to cap BSUoS rates. In this Chart of the week', we...
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E-mobility and low carbon
I can see clearly now: ZEV mandate to provide path to 2030 new ICE vehicle phase-out
The last few weeks have seen several policy documents and consultation responses from the government published in the electric vehicle (EV) world, against the back-drop of record-breaking EV sales. In this 'Chart of the week', we explore the latest consultation conclusion from the Department for Transport (DfT), outlining proposals on...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Price spikes in Queensland: Is solar revenue affected?
In the last few months, we have seen a substantial number of high price intervals in Queensland. Increased Market Demand on 9 March and the simultaneous trip of Gladstone units 3 and 4 on 31 March spiked energy prices to $8,800/MWh and $15,100/MWh levels, respectively. These price spikes occurred between...
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Business supply and services
A GoO-ey end? Green power import certificates poised for removal
On 29 March, BEIS published a consultation seeking views on the removal of Feed in Tariff (FIT) and Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme cost exemptions for green imported electricity and the recognition of EU Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) in GB altogether. Our 'Chart of the week' shows historic GoO imports...
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Power and gas networks
Are you sure this is safe?
On a real-time basis, AEMO communicates with the market through several channels, including market notices where they update everyone about the real-time state of the market and the facilities that support it. In this Chart of the week, we dive into some of the statistics around market notices to provide...
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Home supply and services
Domestic Third Party Charges: 2022-23 outlook
The new energy price cap will come into effect from April, hitting a record high level which will see domestic consumers paying over 50% more per year in their energy bills. Although much of this increase is driven by rising wholesale prices, Third Party Charges (TPCs), reflecting non-commodity energy costs,...
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Low carbon generation
Lower energy prices? More than just hot air
The Victorian Government launched Australia’s first offshore wind targets as part of its transition towards a net-zero emission future. According to the target, 9GW of offshore wind will be installed by 2040, nearly quadrupling the total wind capacity in VIC. In this Chart of the week, we dive into the...
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Low carbon generation
Germinating: The growth of onshore wind and solar PV pipeline capacity since March 2020
The application window for Contract For Difference (CfD) Allocation Round Four (AR4) closed on 14 January. While we await news on the timetable and next steps for the auction, this 'Chart of the week' takes stock of how the pipeline for onshore wind and solar PV has developed since the...
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Commercial and market outlook
State election day chills; SA hit $9,934/MWh on Saturday evening 19 March
SA’s reliance on wind is getting to a point where there is not much to do except importing from VIC and generating with expensive fuel, such as diesel, when wind speed is not at its best shape. In this Chart of the week, we take a closer look at South...
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Low carbon generation
SA on cusp of 100% instantaneous renewables; gas unit directions remain
AEMO’s goal of handling 100% instantaneous renewable penetration by 2025 is a significant challenge and fitting, given the pace the NEM is moving to support increasingly higher levels of instantaneous (and increasingly asynchronous) renewables regularly. While this challenge may not be as pressing for all NEM regions, the need to...
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Energy storage and flexibility
“Fixing” Balancing Costs
The challenge of keeping the national transmission system balanced and stable in real-time is becoming increasingly challenging and expensive. Demand is becoming more unpredictable alongside a generation fleet that is both increasingly intermittent and increasingly distributed. Unsurprisingly, costs have risen. In this 'Chart of the week', we take a look...
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Commercial and market outlook
Back to the Future P-IV: Are P5 Forecasts reliable?
Is there a correct way to be one step ahead of your competitors? Do you want to be able to know the price before settlement accurately? The P5 Reports supposedly provide this… or do they? Many participants use this data to determine optimal outcomes for their fleets. Still, there is...
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Energy storage and flexibility
T-4 Capacity Market Results: New build battery storage leads the way
On 22 February 2022, the T-4 Capacity Market (CM) auction for Delivery Year 2025-26 cleared at £30.59/kW/year. This was the highest ever clearing price in a T-4 GB CM auction and followed the T-1 auction for 2022-23, which cleared at the highest ever GB CM price of £75/kW on 15...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Fast Frequency Response (FFR) market: Is the NEM prepared for a new market?
In July 2021, final rules were published to introduce two new market ancillary services – a very fast raise and very fast lower service. These markets would provide an FCAS contingency response faster than the existing 6-second market. The Fast Frequency Response (FFR) markets are set to commence on 9...
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Home supply and services
No easy fix: tariff prices remain high
In response to the unprecedented increases in global gas prices, Ofgem announced last week time limited measures “to help stabilise” the supply market. This includes a requirement for all domestic suppliers to offer existing customers the same tariffs available to new customers from 14 April, echoing changes made by the...
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Commercial and market outlook
“I’m an All-Pro [coal plant]… You’ll never be more than a replacement player!”
The retirement of Eraring has been the talk of the market since it was announced, but what are the actual implications of its retirement. How big a hole does it leave in the market, and what capacity is likely to fill the void? We take a quick look at some...
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Commercial and market outlook
Germany to step up climate action
The German Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck recently presented a review of Germany’s current climate action status detailing both climate targets in various sectors and the expansion of renewables and the power grid. However, the minister stated that climate action in Germany is currently below expectations, with...
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Commercial and market outlook
Hogging the spotlight: the opportunity in the evening peak
As the duck curve steepens and renewable energy penetration increases in the NEM, we briefly examine revenue share by time of day and highlight the growing opportunity in the evening peak. Will this become the new normal, with revenues increasingly concentrated in just one part of the day? Or will...
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Energy storage and flexibility
Seasonal frequency in the NEM: is VRE continuing to drive it?
Frequency control remains a challenge for AEMO. New PFR (primary frequency response) provisions established in March 2020 will help AEMO to control frequency more efficiently. However, is it yet to be seen how market participants will be incentivised to participate in PFR market. In light of the rapid growth of...
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Home supply and services
Last Resort Supplier Payments: the impact on domestic electricity bills
The presence of a significant increase in commodity costs in 2021, combined with the Default Tariff Cap limiting the revenues that suppliers can recover in the domestic market, has contributed to a number of suppliers falling into insolvency in the last 9 months. The Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) process...
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E-mobility and low carbon
Going up – electric vehicle charging network pricing
Energy retail has been dominated by high wholesale prices across the last year. 2022 so far has seen wholesale energy prices continue their upward momentum, with average day-ahead power prices in January 2022 125% higher than January 2021. In this Chart of the Week, we look at the impact of...
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Commercial and market outlook
Is the NEM going off schedule?
Is the NEM getting harder to control with rising variable renewable generation and distributed photovoltaic growth? AEMO’s balancing of scheduled supply is critical to ensure the system remains stable and wholesale prices work efficiently. This Chart of the week briefly examines if the NEM is “on schedule” to meet this...
