This week’s ‘Chart of the week’ looks at the impact of the states’ targets on the overall NEM’s demand-supply profile. We start with the time-of-day average generation profile in 2020; add the extra renewable needed for the states’ 2030 targets; but also subtract coal and gas that are projected to retire based on AEMO’s data. To illustrate the challenges as well as opportunities, we have kept the average shape for each fuel type constant. This includes not speculating on the arbitrage impact of additional storage, which will undoubtedly play a crucial role in the future energy mix. Finally, the future demand pattern, based on AEMO’s central forecast for 2030.
Dr Franklin Liu
To keep reading, please log in to your account
Related thinking
Commercial and market outlook
Patriots ‘Dynasty’ off to a rough start, as New England suffers loss to the MLFs…
For many, the first of April is marked in calendars as a day for jokes and silly nuisances. For the few, specifically the energy industry, we have it pencilled in for the release of the upcoming year’s Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs). Over the last half-decade, movements in MLFs have received...
Energy storage and flexibility
Out with the old, in with the new: T-4 Capacity Market clears at record price
On 21 February, the T-4 Capacity Market auction for Delivery Year 2026-27 cleared at a record high price of £63.00/kW/year, procuring 43,000.955MW of capacity. In this week’s 'Chart of the week', we explore the key takeaways from the auction.
Commercial and market outlook
Australia’s hydrogen success is tied to energy market policies
According to South Australia’s Hydrogen Power Plant study, the global demand for hydrogen is projected to reach 650 megatons in 2050, with a potential export market of $300b per year. In this market, Australia is well placed for renewable hydrogen production with a considerable penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE)....
Energy storage and flexibility
Christmas comes early for South Australian battery owners
The choice of Chart of the week was an easy one following Saturday’s storms that ‘reined’ down on South Australia. The state became isolated from the rest of the National Electricity Market after one of ElectraNet’s pylons, supporting the interconnector between SA and Victoria, was knocked down[1]. The consequence...
Energy storage and flexibility
State of Storage: Investigating battery profit for NEM states
It has been an interesting year for Australian energy markets, facing unprecedentedly high energy prices, coal outages, and market suspension. In today’s Chart of the week, we will investigate the impact a BESS would have made during FY 2022. Using Cornwall Insight Australia’s battery simulation model, we simulated a stand-alone...
Power and gas networks
The Quest of the Ring: Will the Sydney Ring of Power unlock commercial viability of renewables?
With the development of Renewable Energy Zones (REZs), the need for transmission augmentation arises to unlock the transfer of energy from Renewable Energy Zones to major load centres. This may subsequently increase the commercial viability of renewable generators within the Renewable Energy Zones, for example, by reducing plants’ technical curtailments...
Low carbon generation
Loy Yang A closure: How much VRE and firming capacity is required to cover peak hours?
AGL has accelerated the closure of the Loy Yang A power station for the second time in 2022, a few days after the Victorian government announced a target of 2.6 GW storage by 2030, increasing to 6.3 GW storage by 2035. According to the AGL announcement, released on 29 September,...
Commercial and market outlook
Boulevard of Broken Plants: Can NSW reserves handle non-Green Days?
It’s been easy to get caught up in all the news from the Victoria and Queensland governments proposing record-setting funding and environmental targets by 2030 and 2035, along with the news of AGL bringing forward the closure of Loy Yang A. This signals that energy transition is now well and...
