New renewables capacity deployment in the UK is likely to slow with the closure of the Renewables Obligation (RO) and Feed-in Tariff (FiT) schemes. This is against a backdrop of the CCC’s warning the fourth and fifth carbon budgets will be missed. All while “subsidy-free” renewables struggle to gain traction amid difficult market conditions and a lack of investment incentives. This has stimulated calls for the government to provide clarity on future renewables policy, including a route to market for established renewables.
This week’s chart shows the amount of capacity accredited under the RO and FiT schemes and the amount awarded CfDs in auctions to date. It also shows the capacity that may come online with the remaining £557mn (2011-12 money) budget set aside for future CfD auctions, with the next auction being held in Spring 2019. For illustrative purposes, we have assumed plants that secure CfDs in 2019 commissions from 2023 onwards. We believe £557mn could bring forward ~8.6GW of capacity, although this value is highly dependent on forecasts of wholesale prices.