Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap) Predictions & Insights
Cornwall Insight is a trusted provider of forecast models for the Default Tariff Cap, commonly known as the price cap. View our latest predictions for the upcoming cap periods and address frequently asked questions.
Last updated:
Price Cap Predictions for October 2026 Are Calculated From Close of Play Figures on 21 July 2026
Figure 1: Cornwall Insight’s Default Tariff Cap forecast using Typical Domestic Consumption Values (dual fuel, direct debit customer)
| Default Tariff Cap Forecast | October – December (Q326) Forecast (New TDCVs) | October – December (Q3 2026) Forecast (Previous TDCVs ) |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity (2,700 kWh) | £860.47 | £912.89 |
| Gas (11,500 kWh) | £839.10 | £993.38 |
| Cap Forecast | £1,699.58 | £1,906.27 |
Source: Cornwall Insight
Note:
- These figures include the cut in VAT for electricity bills announced by the government on 21st July.
- On 1st July Ofgem changed its definition of an ‘average household’, known as typical domestic consumption values, to reflect the fact that average household energy use has fallen. Cornwall Insight has therefore published two forecasts, one with previous TDCVs set at 2,700 kWh per annum for electricity and 11,500 kWh per annum for gas, and one with new TDCVs set at 2,500 kWh per annum for electricity and 9,500 kWh per annum for gas.
Figure 2: Default Tariff Cap forecast, Per Unit Costs and Standing Charge (dual fuel, direct debit customer)
| Fuel | Standing charge (£/per day) | Per Unit Cost (p/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity (2,700 kWh) | 0.56 | 26.27 |
| Gas (11,500 kWh) | 0.30 | 7.70 |
Note:
- These figures include the cut in VAT for electricity bills announced by the government on 21st July.
- All figures are national average unless otherwise stated. All intermediate and final calculations are rounded to two decimal places. Totals may not add due to rounding.
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Frequently Asked Questions About the Default Tariff Price Cap
To give people an idea of what an average household may be paying under the price cap Ofgem has devised Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) for gas and electricity.
Under the Ofgem definition, a customer with a Typical Domestic Consumption Value (TDCV) uses 2,700kWh per annum for electricity and 11,500kWh per annum for gas.
From 1st July Ofgem will change it’s definition of a Typical Domestic Consumption Value (TDCV), and will lower the values to 2,500 kWh per annum for electricity and 9,500 kWh per annum for gas.
While the average consumer cap is helpful for comparison and based on the stated TDCVs, the cap is not a finite limit on the total cost of energy a customer pays per year on their energy bills, this is based on a household’s energy consumption.
The cap will also vary depending upon where in the country you live, with our figures representing the national average.
The price cap is a limit on what suppliers can charge domestic consumers per kilowatt hour of energy used, known as the unit rate, and a limit on the standing charge (p/day) which covers the cost of supplying energy to your home.
The price cap for Q3 (July – September) has been set by Ofgem at £1,862 under pre-July 2026 Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) and £1,663 under the new TDCVs.
The cap changes on a quarterly basis – Q1 (January to March inclusive), Q2 (April to June inclusive), Q3 (July to September inclusive) and Q4 (October to December inclusive). Electricity and gas are calculated individually, although tariff rates are typically quoted by suppliers for a dual-fuel customer.
The underlying methodology from Ofgem works on a bottom-up basis in which the component elements of the cap are calculated, with these being the wholesale cost of energy and the non-wholesale costs.
The latter includes network charges, low carbon levies and other policy costs, taxes and assumed levels of margin per customer.
We apply the Ofgem methodology with the current wholesale market prices for gas and electricity along with our own view of the non-wholesale elements of the bill.
These are then applied to the identified TDCVs for gas and electricity to calculate the bill for a typical domestic customer.
We calculate the figures for individual regions, with our figures representing the national average.
Cornwall Insight is an independent energy research, analytics, and consulting firm. We do not have any influence over Ofgem or its setting of the price cap.
Default Tariff Cap Predictor
Our Default Tariff Cap Predictor forecasts Ofgem’s quarterly price cap and examines the key drivers affecting the level of the cap, and – in turn – household energy bills.
