Q2 2022 All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030 overview

Our latest All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030 report provides a taster of the insights from our Q2 All-Island Forward Curve report. Changes to the SEM, GB and European Markets over the last quarter have been incorporated into our models, including delays in commissioning and new capacity plans, to revise our forecast from last quarter.

Prices in Ireland are likely to remain elevated above historical levels for the next five years as high fossil fuel and carbon prices persist. However, increasing renewables deployment, especially onshore and offshore wind, will push power prices back downwards. To meet the 80% renewables generation target in 2030 the ISEM market will primarily rely on wind capacity, and by 2030 onshore and offshore wind make up 43% of installed capacity. In Ireland, high wind speeds and connection to wind-saturated Great Britain will mean winter and summer prices diverge as the effect of higher wind speeds in the winter will outweigh the higher demand for power.

To balance the increasing penetration of renewables more storage and backup thermal plant will be needed. Open Cycle Gas Turbines become more popular as they are cheaper to deploy than more efficient Combined Cycle Turbines at lower load factors, and by 2030 they make up 10% of installed capacity. Lithium-Ion batteries are another crucial technology, built to arbitrage low and high prices cause by variable renewables output and to supply system services they rapidly rise to become 24% of installed capacity by 2030.

Related thinking

Low carbon generation

Government publishes Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2023

This article is an extract from our Energy Spectrum Ireland service, which is a monthly publication and weekly news bulletin covering key developments in the Irish and Northern Irish energy sectors. If you are interested, we are currently offering a free trial which you can sign up to by filling...

Commercial and market outlook

Delays to onshore wind investment increase long-term power prices in Ireland

Note: Cornwall Insight Ireland release the 'All-Island Power Market Outlook 2023' on a quarterly basis. The increase in long-term power prices refers to the comparison with our Q3 Power Market Outlook released in October 2022. Data from our fourth - ‘All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030’ – has forecast that...

Net zero corporates and ESG

Q4 2022 All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030 overview

This report provides an annual overview of trends for the All-Ireland Power Market out to 2030 using outputs from Cornwall Insight’s latest forward curve for the All-Island (AI) Single Electricity Market (SEM) covering Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This publication is based on comprehensive market and asset-level power...

Net zero corporates and ESG

Q3 2022 All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030 overview

This report provides an annual overview of trends for the All-Ireland Power Market out to 2030 using outputs from Cornwall Insight’s latest forward curve for the All-Island (AI) Single Electricity Market (SEM) covering Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This publication is based on comprehensive market and asset-level power...

Announcement

Australian FCAS power price trends

This report provides power price trends for the technology enablement as a percentage of total market share, using outputs from Cornwall Insight Australia’s latest Frequency Control Ancillary Service (FCAS) price curves, published on 30 August 2022. We hope this information is of value-add to you and your business. Please don't...

Announcement

2021/22 Australian energy insights report

Analytics on key current developments in the Australian energy industry are available Cornwall Insight Australia has released a compilation of Australian energy insights, charts, and analyses. The report includes the topics of energy storage and flexibility, generation (all technologies), power prices, low carbon generation, FCAS, policy and regulation, and transmission...

Commercial and market outlook

Perspective | Is the design of the electricity market costing consumers money?

This article is from our Energy Spectrum publication which was published on 4 March 2022. It has become increasingly clear the existing market design is unfit for either a future net zero world or a period of fossil fuel price crisis, but what market design might be best for our...

Energy storage and flexibility

All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030

This report provides an annual overview of trends for the All-Island Power Market out to 2030 using outputs from Cornwall Insight’s latest forward curve for the All-Island (AI) Single Electricity Market (SEM) covering Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This publication is based on comprehensive market and asset-level power...