The Load Flow Study (Curtailment study) provides developers, lenders, equity investors and operators with an estimate of how much price or volume discounting would occur over the next 30 years if they were to install an asset at a specific location.
As our Load Flow Study is built on top of our National Electricity Market (NEM) Benchmark Power Curve (BPC, our in-house electricity spot price forecast, which is built in PLEXOS), its input assumptions are consistent with the rest of our modelling and subscription services, such as demand profiles, project timings, new developments, early retirements, and policy and regulatory changes.
For context, our NEM BPC’s wholesale prices are derived from the simulation of the fundamental principles underpinning the NEM, looking at the cost of individual power stations, revenue requirements, their dynamic characteristics, and generation and transmission requirements to meet long-term demand forecasts. Like our BPC, our Load Flow modelling service supports investment cases, budgeting, asset benchmarking, and business planning for lenders, equity investors, developers, and operators. It is a comprehensive market and asset-level electricity modelling service that delivers long-term MLF and curtailment forecasts performed by industry-leading engineering, regulatory, market, and policy experts, supplemented with insights from trusted practitioners.
- Provides potential network constraints that may impact projects
- Offers estimates of the generation curtailment volume and risk that projects may face
- Understand how market developments impact the curtailment risk forecasts
Who is it for?
- Equity investors
MLF and curtailment forecast for Japanese investor/developer (2022-23): Undertook an MLF forecast for a large Japanese solar developer, which also included an assessment of curtailment.