We provide:
A detailed forecast of the Ofgem Default Tariff Cap up to and including the end of 2030
A bottom-up assessment of the component elements of the Default Tariff Cap, helping you to understand the drivers for change
An assessment of incoming and potential changes to the cap methodology and their impacts
Widely trusted and banked margin and revenue forecasts
Our forecasts remain within 1% of outturn levels despite considerable uncertainty.
Our average forecast deviation over the stated time horizon opposite is 0.66% , with the modal forecast deviation in absolute terms remaining <1.00%.
Our Q3 2025 and Q2 2026 forecasts were completely aligned to the published Ofgem levels.
This accuracy is despite the continued presence of material variances due to changes to the underlying cap methodology, the timing and quantum of which remain uncertain.
In line with our forecast process, retrospective reviews of forecast vs. outturn continues to be undertaken to assess the quantum and number of component deviations to forecast.
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| Quarter | Actual (£) | CI Forecast (£) | £ Difference | Difference (%) |
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