NEM Benchmark Power Curve

Category: Forecasts

The NEM Benchmark Power Curve is a comprehensive market and asset-level electricity modelling service. It delivers long-term wholesale power price forecasts informed by industry-leading regulatory, market, and policy experts and supplemented with direct access to trusted practitioners.

The report provides a quarterly update on the power price impacts of major developments around energy consumption profiles, changing operating regimes, asset portfolio, generation costs and revenue requirements, project timings, technology cost projections, regulation, policy directions, network, and more. It also provides a deep-dive analysis of specific sensitivities that may have a significant impact on the energy market. This comprehensive yet focused approach to simulating the National Electricity Market (NEM) closes the gap between typical power price models and real-life market practices.

Our report delivers a transparent explanation of the drivers of long-term power prices and provides the following information:

  • 30-year forecasts of NEM wholesale power captured prices for a range of generating technologies at 30-minute dispatch resolution
  • 5-year forecasts of NEM wholesale power captured prices for a range of generating technologies at 5-minute dispatch resolution
  • 30-year quarterly forecast of wholesale prices per region
  • Three scenarios presented throughout (Low, Neutral/Base, and High) are largely consistent with AEMO’s latest Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios Report
  • Future prices volatility analyses
  • Diurnal (time-of-day) view of long-term wholesale electricity price forecasts
  • Views on future capacity and generation mix
  • Large-Scale Generation Certificate (LGC) forecasts

At 5-minute and 30-minute granularity, output data can easily be integrated with your financial modelling and business plan templates.

Cornwall Insight’s team of experts provides an interactive support service to assist with interpreting results.

Key benefits

  • Understand the range of credible long-term electricity prices captured by different technologies
  • Incorporate asset-level price curves into project/portfolio financial models to support investment cases, budgeting, asset benchmarking, and business planning
  • Benchmark and assess the value delivered by different routes to market