NEM Frequency Ancillary Control Services

Category: Forecasts

Cornwall Insight Australia’s ‘NEM and WEM FCAS price curves’ are designed for lenders, equity investors, developers, and operators to support them in investment cases, budgeting, asset benchmarking and business planning.

The ‘FCAS price curves’ service provides subscribers with a granular settlement period price forecast for all eight FCAS markets over a 20-year period. Our innovative forecasting model utilises a statistical bid-based approach at the DUID level to allocate optimal dispatch over the eight FCAS markets while incorporating energy market information and dispatch from our industry-recognised and widely adopted ‘Benchmark power curve’ price forecast model.

The service overview

Cost and revenue
Compared to simple backcasting, the granular settlement period FCAS curve data can be used to more accurately assess possible FCAS costs for a given load or generation profile. Our FCAS curve data can be used to estimate and review FCAS revenues from new or existing assets to build trust in investment cases and trading strategies. Cornwall Insight Australia has also developed a storage investment model which uses our FCAS price curve to optimise FCAS revenues.

Regular explanation and context setting
We provide a quarterly report containing FCAS price forecasts, market risk assessment and expert analysis of emerging trends. Coverage includes reviewing the introduction of new capacity, changing market volumes and technology participation, as well as analysis of captured prices, which provides a comprehensive yet focussed outlook on the prospects for FCAS markets in the NEM.

Access to expert advice
This service includes access to Cornwall Insight Australia’s industry experts. We seek and encourage open engagement between our experts and subscribers to ensure our service provides clear, meaningful insights. Accordingly, the data and results from our models are more understandable and enable clients to engage confidently in the market and make informed business decisions.

Key benefits
  • Granular settlement period pricing allows for asset-specific analysis of both potential liabilities for causer payers and associated costs. The service includes volatility analysis of future prices and outcomes, allowing businesses to take calculated risks and manage their assets and market commitments optimally.
  • The quarterly report summarises market findings as well as analyses future market share and technology mix, allowing clients to determine future market growth and undertake revenue and volume risk assessments.
  • The dataset (containing the battery trading data) is provided in a usable format facilitating easy integration with financial models and allowing for detailed volatility reviews and assessment of forward opportunities.
  • Policymakers at all levels can use our FCAS curves to evaluate and review the forward FCAS markets. Assisting them in understanding the market signals and potential requirements for new market design or government investment.

Who is it for?

  • Lenders
  • Equity investors
  • Developers
  • Generators
  • Operators
  • Retailers
  • Government
  • Market bodies
  • Regulatory bodies