Marginal loss factor load flow model

Our Marginal Loss Factor (MLF) modelling service provides an annual National Electricity Market (NEM) site-specific MLF forecast for the next 30 years. It is built based on our power system modelling and NEM Benchmark Power Curve (BPC) using consistent input assumptions from our other modelling and subscription services, such as demand profiles, project timings, new developments, early retirements, and policy and regulatory changes.

Our MLF modelling is developed on engineering principles that evaluate the power system from technical and operational perspectives. It uses sound engineering techniques that look at the power flows at every dispatch period, solving for operational characteristics such as voltages, angles, and nodal active and reactive power balance. The input used for power system analysis is in line with our latest NEM BPC. Our MLF modelling service is a bespoke service that provides clients with an estimate of how much revenue discounting would occur if they were to install an asset at a certain location. This modelling also gives the drivers and factors that may improve or worsen MLFs at that specific location throughout the next 30 years.

Key benefits

  • Gives client estimates of the revenue discounting and its trends in the medium term
  • Provides insight into the potential impact of market developments on the MLF forecast

Who is it for?

  • Developers
  • Lenders
  • Equity investors
  • Operators

MLF assessments

MLF and curtailment forecast for Japanese investor/developer (2022-23): Undertook an MLF forecast for a large Japanese solar developer, which also included an assessment of curtailment.

MLF forecast for an international solar developer (2022): Undertook an MLF forecast for a large international solar developer, which also included undertaking an impact assessment of how the site affected the MLF of those other sites near the project and assessed the overall benefit of the project to the total regional output.

MLF forecast for an international solar and storage developer (2022): Undertook an MLF forecast for three storage sites and a co-located solar and storage site.