Cheapest fixed tariff energy deals £1,700 more than the Price Cap

Due to market volatility, world events and Ofgem’s new methodology, our price cap prediction has changed.

Please see the latest predictions via our blogs page here

Our latest research compiled using Comparison Technologies, has shown the average price of the cheapest ten fixed price tariffs for new direct debit customers in April was £3,685 a year, £1,714 more than the current Default Tariff Cap. The research, shows that despite Aprils £693 Cap increase, suppliers’ standard variable tariffs continue to be the cheapest tariffs available to customers.

Only a year ago in April 2021 the cheapest ten fixed tariffs averaged £937 a year, demonstrating the unprecedented increases customers are facing. The high prices have seen a 52% increase in the number of customers now in debt to their supplier, with six million households owing an average of £1881.

While suppliers have been working to support customers through a range of direct and indirect measures, including increasing financial support funds or running energy saving campaigns to help customers reduce their usage, companies have said they are not able to address this problem alone and have called on the government to step in.

Cornwall Insight have predicted the Default Tariff Cap will rise significantly in October, putting pressure on the government and other stakeholders to increase support for consumers struggling to pay their energy bills.

Figure 1: The cheapest direct debit tariffs against the default tariff cap

Source: Comparison Technologies and Cornwall Insight

It would seem domestic energy consumers are currently stuck between a rock and a hard place, while the Default Tariff Cap will inevitably increase in October, our research demonstrates there are currently very limited opportunities for new direct debit payers to switch to a cheaper fixed tariff. It is understandable that many will see suppliers as the responsible party for delivering cheaper bills for their customers, however they are just one piece of a wider energy market.

There are several options open to the government and calls from suppliers for more targeted support for lower income families, a rise in the government’s Energy Bills Rebate, an increase to the Warm Homes Discount and the introduction of a deficit fund have all been forthcoming. Despite this, the Queen’s speech saw the government double down on its current levels of support through energy bills and council tax rebates, support which many, including suppliers, are adamant simply does not go far enough.

Protecting vulnerable consumers from the impact of escalating energy bills should be top of the list for stakeholders in the industry, including the government. It is clear that there needs to be a review of financial support in the short-term, alongside longer-term energy market reform, if they are serious about supporting those in fuel poverty.


  1. UK energy debt reaches £1 billion with about one in four customers in debt to their supplier – USwitch

Related thinking

Home supply and services

Fixed tariffs and collective switching return to the market

With the Default Tariff Cap falling by 17% compared to the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) at the start of the month, there has been a great deal of attention around the possible return of fixed tariffs for domestic consumers. Several fixed tariffs were indeed launched in recent weeks, representing a...

Regulation and policy

Our response to the Spring Budget

Once again, a UK budget has seen some significant energy policy announcements that will stir up conversation and opinion across the country. It also shows how reining in energy prices is seen as key to restraining inflation. The pre-budget announcement to maintain the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) at £2,500 had...

Home supply and services

Our response to the publication of the REMA consultation summary

On 7th March the government published the summary of responses received from its Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) consultation. The responses received showed the industry has expressed strong support (92% agreement) for energy market reform that prioritises decarbonisation, security of supply, and cost-effectiveness. Respondents also agreed that the current...

Home supply and services

Our response to the announcement of the April price cap

The predictions for the Default Tariff Cap in this piece are out of date, please click here to find our latest forecasts and commentary on the cap. Following the announcement by Ofgem that April’s Default Tariff Cap (price cap) will fall to an average £3,280 per year, nearly a £1,000 drop for...

Home supply and services

Our final forecast for the April price cap

The predictions for the Default Tariff Cap in this piece are out of date, please click here to find our latest forecasts and commentary on the cap. We have released the final prediction for the April Default Tariff Cap (price cap) following the closure of the observation window1, on 17 February. We...

Business supply and services

Predicted fall in the April 2023 Price Cap but prices remain significantly above the EPG  

The predictions for the Default Tariff Cap in this piece are out of date, please click here to find our latest forecasts and commentary on the cap. Our latest Default Tariff Cap (price cap) forecasts for April – June 2023 (Q223) have dropped by over £600 since the last widely released figures...

Regulation and policy

Energy Price Guarantee to end in April

I was not surprised by the announcement from the Chancellor today (17/10) regarding the shortened time period in which the domestic Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) will apply, for all the reasons discussed in our report -  Energy Price Guarantee - Counting the Cost - and my accompanying blog. Our report...

Regulation and policy

Government to consult on the introduction of Cost-Plus-Revenue Limit

The government issued its Energy Prices Bill on 12 October. The bill will put in law a number of the already-announced mechanisms that will be used to support households and businesses this winter including the Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bill Relief Scheme. Also announced alongside this is the...