Power market modelling: ISP, NEM & WEM BPC, NEM & WEM FCAS

Our Benchmark Power Curve sets itself above other products in the market for its accuracy and independence. Notably, we provide 5-minute price granularity during the first five years of the outlook period and 30-minute price granularity from the sixth year onward.

Implemented in PLEXOS (the industry-preferred tool), both the five and 30-minute results are provided to our customers; we do not believe in the black box approach other providers take.

Our customers can access the raw 30-minute and 5-minute price forecasts and our quarterly reports containing in-depth data analytics, market insights, and intelligence. We believe this level of transparency is integral for industry investors to undertake internal due diligence for projects.

Cornwall Insight Australia also has significant experience modelling ancillary service markets. We currently provide a quarterly Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) price forecast over a 20-year outlook on a 30-minute dispatch basis across all eight FCAS markets. The service includes reports and data that are similar to the BPC. The FCAS and BPC wholesale price forecasts are co-optimised, accurately representing AEMO’s market dispatch modelling environment.

The storage investment model (SIM) performs a battery optimisation exercise, where it completes revenue optimisation of the eight FCAS markets for the life of the project.

We support with the following:

  • 20-year energy price forecasting across all NEM and WEM regions
  • FCAS price forecasting that is co-optimised with the electricity market
  • Potential bespoke market modelling
  • Storage investment model (SIM)

Bespoke power market modelling

Cornwall Insight’s modelling team can work with you to conduct bespoke modelling and what-if analysis for different energy market scenarios that are different to those assumptions used in our electricity Benchmark Power and FCAS curves for both the NEM and WEM. Some common changes to our market models include changes to network upgrades, adjustments to generation closures, adjustments to demand profiles and updated generation bidding strategies.

  • Department of Industry, Science, Energy, and Resources – Energy Market Modelling (2020 – ongoing): We worked for the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources to establish an electricity and gas market model that is capable of easily incorporating and testing new interconnection and transmission as well as impacts of new rule changes and policies. Key responsibilities included: Long-term power system, short-term dispatch and gas market modelling; Scenario analysis of electricity and gas markets of, for example, new transmission infrastructure, major generation closures or changes in energy market policy or rules; Knowledge sharing and upskilling of colleagues, particularly on electricity market modelling and PLEXOS operation; Managing relationships with a diverse group of stakeholders across the department and externally; Producing economic analysis and translating technical modelling outputs into accessible language. In 2021 we secured an ongoing retainer with DISER to undertake work on ongoing market elements, including policy impact assessments, new market design parameters and testing, and FCAS market integration.
  • Utility coal retirement scenario modelling (2021): For a large utility, we undertook a bespoke modelling evaluation of the impact on future peaking capacity in the NEM due to an accelerated coal retirement profile. This analysis was then presented to key stakeholders for the client.
  • Future capacity build-out forecast (2021): Provided a 20+ year forecast for the inclusion of multiple pumped hydro facilities as well as the increased interconnection between Tasmania and Victoria. This included hydro projects in TAS trading across energy and FCAS markets and the formulation of six distinct scenarios that explored the impact of different interconnector builds and government legislation.