In December 2022, we published our insight paper, Another winter of discontent? What happens to the UK this winter, and next, if the gas taps from Russia stay turned off? discussing concerns for European and UK gas supply during winters 2022-23 and 2023-24, and the key variables that could influence gas storage levels at the end of the current heating season in April 2023.
In this paper, we have used a range of historical gas withdrawal and injection rates to model potential European gas storage levels through to the beginning of next winter. We have also included a discussion of the various swing factors and how they could influence gas storage during the coming year.