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Cornwall Insight released our forecast on the costs the government may face by freezing energy prices at £2,500 for all consumers. Our CEO Gareth Miller, spoke on the chance the government was taking by introducing the Energy price Guarantee Guardian
"The urgency of the imminent Default Tariff Cap cliff edge prompted a universal response by government due to its simplicity and speed. With that pressure now lifted, there is oxygen to breathe deeply and look at targeted support again. "
“While hydrogen does have a part to play in the decarbonisation pathway, through for example use in the industrial sectors and in the use of surplus electricity, current and forecast costs all show it is simply uneconomical to use a 100% hydrogen fuel for heating our homes. "
"A growing number of investors are committed to delivering market-leading projects that will facilitate and support the energy transition toward Net Zero in Australia... Our work with Aquila Capital demonstrates Cornwall Insight Australia’s ability to provide Battery Storage specialist revenue and forecasting advice throughout this energy evolution.”
"These figures show that not only is renewable generation a benefit to energy security in the longer-term, as well as good for the environment, but it also provides tangible financial benefits to consumers right now.”
"The cap was never meant to be a permanent solution, was created for a different energy market than the one we face today and has not protected consumers from what will be incredible hardship this winter."
"The energy crisis is not something which can be solved with hastily pulled together, short-term policies that yield a percentage decrease here or a few months relief there. Although such policies may help to solve today’s problems, they risk being sticking plasters for a much deeper and longer-term problem. "
"Our data shows the benefits to the market of a growth in renewable investment, with the increasing competition for GB renewables reducing prices and helping stabilise the energy market over the next few years."
"Rather than critiquing the methodology of the cap, it may be time to consider the cap’s place altogether. After all, if it is not controlling consumer prices, and is damaging suppliers’ business models, we must wonder if it is fit for purpose - especially in these times of unprecedented energy...
“Australia is undergoing energy transition at an incredible pace, coupled with an unpredictable global supply, which is likely to lead to hardship for large and small consumers in the short term."
"While the rise in forecasts for October and January is a pressing concern, it is not only the level - but the duration - of the rises that makes these new forecasts so devastating. Furthermore, given the current level of the wholesale price, this level of household energy bills currently...
“While the government’s package of support for domestic consumers will put a small dent into Winter energy bills, the funding was announced when Ofgem were forecasting the typical households Default Tariff Cap to be £2,800 a year, over £500 lower than our current predictions. In light of the extra pressure...
"Despite relatively low demand compared to winter, the heatwave and subsequent inefficiency of generation and supply, caused the electricity market to become incredibly tight. This increased the potential of the supply not being able to keep up with demand, something which in a worse case scenario, could cause short term...
“Our power price forecast shows that in the long-term onshore and offshore wind depress power prices during seasonally windy periods, such as winter, despite higher demand. Batteries exacerbate this trend by replacing more expensive fossil fuelled back up generators (like coal or oil) and allowing the system to rely more...
"There is always some hope that the market will stabilise and retreat in time for the setting of the January cap. However, with the announcement of the October cap only a month away, the high wholesale prices are already being “baked in” to the figure"
"An uncertain economic outlook carries risk of increased costs of financing, and turbine suppliers and other service and equipment providers are generally under financial pressure from rising input costs and pre-existing tight margins, placing pressure on banks and the supply chain to raise prices. The pathway to commissioning without changes...
"Joint CPPAs for SMEs are a win-win, which will allow more corporations to take advantage while also being beneficial to the generators by reducing the risk of contract termination."
"With the geopolitical events in Russia causing significant barriers to energy flows and the situation showing no sign of abating, we are unfortunately predicting average consumers will be facing a bill over 50% more than the existing cap - itself an unprecedented rise."
"For the cap to be lifted, generation capacity currently out for maintenance would need to come back online. We would also need to see a reduction in underlying costs for generators so this can flow through to reduced wholesale prices."
"There are critical challenges facing the country as it pushes forward with its decarbonisation ambitions. These challenges are not insurmountable, however, and building on its strong foundations, the country can make significant strides towards environmental sustainability and energy independence, while unlocking investment opportunities."
The continued influence of geopolitical and economic changes on UK energy prices further strengthens the need for the UK to stabilise its energy supply.
The windfall tax is not an enduring solution to the endemic problem of fuel poverty in this country. We must look further, keeping in mind what will happen when bills rise yet again, or our economy hits another crisis
While the switch to quarterly pricing has been designed so consumers can reap the rewards of lower energy prices at a much quicker rate, the other side of the coin is that any increases will show up quicker in consumer bills.
Ofgem have proposed moving the Price Cap to a quarterly review system. Principle Consultant Dr Craig Lowrey featured in Energy Live News discussing our preliminary forecasts for an average domestic energy bill under the proposed new system. Our initial view based upon the information and draft models provided by Ofgem...
Our initial view based upon the information and draft models provided by Ofgem – and given current market conditions – is that the Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 caps will show an approximate 5% reduction on our current forecast
The next decade and beyond will see significant changes to the energy generation technology mix with renewables becoming more and more important. We must make sure that not only do we plan for long-term generation, but we work to design a wholesale market which supports investment in new low carbon...
With the price cap yet again demonstrating its poor ability to protect households from higher energy costs, our predictions highlight the need for a more enduring solution if the objective is to ensure domestic energy costs are fair, and sustainable.
With bills already forecast to rise significantly in Winter 2022/23, Cornwall Insight released new data showing that prices looked likely to stay above £2,000 for the Summer 2023 and Winter 2023/24 price cap periods. Principle Consultant Dr Craig Lowrey spoke in the Guardian on how the government could support consumers...
The Strategy struggles to address what many will see as the two immediate challenges: reducing energy dependence on fossil fuel imports and helping consumers deal with sky-rocketing energy bills.
Originally brought in to shield consumers from significant bill rises, the limitations of the Default Tariff Cap are once again being demonstrated, with our predictions showing energy bills could be set to double in just one year.
