Across multiple reports published in recent weeks, the topic of changing supply dynamics has been a key focus as more renewable energy resources continue to enter the system including both grid-scale and behind-the-meter assets. Much of the commentary has focussed on the changing operation of coal generation in the face of increased solar penetration, however, the need for flexible generation profiles has also significantly impacted the manner in which gas powered generation (GPG) has been managed.
In our Energy Spectrum Australia Perspective piece this month, we unpacked AEMO’s ISP and the future projections for gas generation. In the first year of the ISP, CCGT generation sent out is expected to drop by ~76%, to only 24% of FY2020 generation levels. This is a significant decline considering that the daily profile for GPG has shifted considerably over the last five years. This is clear when we look at Figure 1 and the shifting daily profile of GPG from a more typical flat profile to one that is much more flexible with dispatch more focussed on peak demand periods
