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Categories
Commercial and market outlook
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Commercial and market outlook
Prices soar in the west
For the first time in the history of the Western Australian Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), the balancing price reached the maximum price limit of $1,018/MWh between 5:30pm and 7:30pm on Tuesday, 29 November 2022. This came one month after the state-owned Muja C Unit 5 coal power station was closed....
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Commercial and market outlook
Australia’s hydrogen success is tied to energy market policies
According to South Australia’s Hydrogen Power Plant study, the global demand for hydrogen is projected to reach 650 megatons in 2050, with a potential export market of $300b per year. In this market, Australia is well placed for renewable hydrogen production with a considerable penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE)....
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Commercial and market outlook
It’s finally happening; EV market hotter than ICE in 2022! Is the NEM ready?
For the first time in 30 years, Australia’s highest-selling mid-size vehicle is not a Toyota Camry - running an internal combustion engine (ICE). As reported by 7 news, it has been replaced by the Tesla Model 3. This piece of information demonstrates that the EV uptake in Australia is achieving...
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Commercial and market outlook
“There’s a hole in the bucket, dear Liza”: but maybe not as big as we think?…
There has been talk for years about the potential introduction into the National Electricity Market of a “capacity market”, with significant pushback from the industry over the potential for a capacity market to prolong the life of coal and gas and slow decarbonisation of the grid. On Friday last week...
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Commercial and market outlook
“If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough.” – Mario Andretti
Over the past few months, there has been an avalanche of announcements related to the energy market. Victoria wants to be 65% renewable by 2030 and 95% by 2035, AGL is likely to retire Loy Yang A ten years earlier, Queensland has its Energy and Jobs Plan, and transmission investment...
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Commercial and market outlook
Casualties of the energy transition highway – market effects of Torrens Island B retirement
As part of Australia’s energy transition, investments are being made to ensure sufficient network capacity to host renewable energy generation, share them between regions, and maintain power system security and reliability. One of the interconnectors being built is Project EnergyConnect (PEC), which will provide 800 MW of transfer capacity between...
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Commercial and market outlook
A taste of freedom for renewables with syncons in South Australia
Today wind capacity in South Australia stands at 2500MW, contributing to almost 40% of the energy generation in the state. This is in addition to utility-scale solar and rooftop PV, which contribute 4% and 15% of total generation in SA, respectively. With such a high level of variable renewable energy...
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Commercial and market outlook
Selling out the ARENA – how grants for renewables have changed over time
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) was one of those rare institutions that managed to survive the political energy battles over the last decade. Initially established in 2012, ARENA has dispensed over $1.9b in funding to date to support renewable technologies, often at the ‘pre-commercial’ stage. The ARENA funding gives...
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Commercial and market outlook
Boulevard of Broken Plants: Can NSW reserves handle non-Green Days?
It’s been easy to get caught up in all the news from the Victoria and Queensland governments proposing record-setting funding and environmental targets by 2030 and 2035, along with the news of AGL bringing forward the closure of Loy Yang A. This signals that energy transition is now well and...
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Commercial and market outlook
EV uptake set to transform the grid in the Australia – but how much?
Electric vehicles (EVs) are slowly becoming more popular in Australia, with new car sales increased during the last two years. Although Australia is behind in EV deployment compared to other countries, Federal and state governments have taken serious steps to accelerate EV uptake. Therefore, EVs could play a significant role...
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Commercial and market outlook
Moving with the times: How trading strategies in the NEM changed in a year
Inherent in an electricity market like the NEM is its ever-changing landscape. Contributors to these changes may be government-driven policies, evolving market dynamics caused by external factors like a global pandemic, a worldwide rise in fuel prices, and even changes in the market structure itself. As cliché as it may...
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Commercial and market outlook
Off the charts: ESOO flags earlier reliability shortfalls but no need to panic yet
In the space of a year, the prospect of reliability shortfalls in the NEM has increased significantly. This is the stark finding of AEMO’s latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report. In our Chart of the week, we illustrate how reliability forecasts have deteriorated in just a year, and we...
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Commercial and market outlook
Do batteries add viability to electrolysers within the current market?
Last month, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced that there will be a gas shortfall in the east coast market in 2023, not a surprise considering the international gas crisis and high gas prices in Australia. Such events have increased attention towards expanding gas supply or reducing the...
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Commercial and market outlook
Recent events push NEM turnover to new heights
The story of recent times in the NEM has been the significant escalation of wholesale price outcomes in the market. As discussed repeatedly, elevated fuel costs for gas and supply constraints in the market have sent NEM turnover to uncharted territory. By NEM turnover, we refer to the total costs...
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Commercial and market outlook
Big Battery, even bigger revenues
The Victorian Big Battery (VBB) in Geelong, Victoria, is currently the largest commissioned battery in the NEM at 300 MW/450 MWh. In Q2 2022, VBB, and its owner Neoen, posted an estimated AEMO wholesale net revenue of just over $13 million for the three-month period. It is important to note...
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Commercial and market outlook
Elevated Wholesale Price in the NEM: QLD on the verge of triggering Administered Price Cap (APC) again
The Administered Price Cap (APC) was triggered for the first state on 12 June at 6:55 am as a result of QLD breaching the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT) of $1,359,100 for the rolling 7-day period. This caused the withdrawal of capacities by gas generators that could not recover fuel costs...
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Commercial and market outlook
Gas generation on the move
Gas and electricity prices in Australia are unavoidably linked, particularly in the evening peaks where the gas generators have increased capability to set the price. Due to the recent spike in global gas prices, there has been a distinct change in gas generator bidding strategy resulting in an increase in...
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Commercial and market outlook
Australian gas prices have recently coupled with European spot. Will linkage persist post-2023?
Last year it was difficult to imagine that spot gas prices in Australia would hit unprecedented levels of more than $40-50/GJ, with AEMO capping the DWGM price at $40/GJ. By comparison, the DWGM only averaged $5.10/GJ last year. As was mentioned by Energy Market Intelligence Manager Mohsin Ali in the...
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Commercial and market outlook
Market suspension poised to lift, but underlying drivers may stick around
It has been a chaotic few weeks on the east coast, culminating with the NEM being suspended on 15 June 2022, an outcome not seen in the modern version of the NEM. There has been much coverage of the key drivers of the crisis. It stems predominantly from a perfect...
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Commercial and market outlook
Winter is coming: MT PASA scheduled coal outages for winter?
The number of thermal generator problems continues to grow, and so does peak time volatility in the two northern states. On top of the closure of Unit 3 at Liddell occurring on 1 April and Unit 4 at Callide C still out without a public resolution, outages and problems have...
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Commercial and market outlook
Nobody said it was easy, but it’s time for us to part: VIC’s climate targets & coal
In 2017, the Victorian Government legislated a state target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Since then, short-term targets have been set in five-year increments, with the 2030 target being to cut emissions by 45-50% below 2005 levels. The Government is currently consulting on the 2035 target, which must...
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Commercial and market outlook
BSUoS charges: volatility, deferral and reform
Over the last few years Balancing Services Use of System (BSUoS) charges have experienced significant volatility, with costs reaching record high levels which have added to the rise in consumer electricity bills and ultimately resulted in intervention in order to cap BSUoS rates. In this Chart of the week', we...
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Commercial and market outlook
State election day chills; SA hit $9,934/MWh on Saturday evening 19 March
SA’s reliance on wind is getting to a point where there is not much to do except importing from VIC and generating with expensive fuel, such as diesel, when wind speed is not at its best shape. In this Chart of the week, we take a closer look at South...
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Commercial and market outlook
Back to the Future P-IV: Are P5 Forecasts reliable?
Is there a correct way to be one step ahead of your competitors? Do you want to be able to know the price before settlement accurately? The P5 Reports supposedly provide this… or do they? Many participants use this data to determine optimal outcomes for their fleets. Still, there is...
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Commercial and market outlook
“I’m an All-Pro [coal plant]… You’ll never be more than a replacement player!”
The retirement of Eraring has been the talk of the market since it was announced, but what are the actual implications of its retirement. How big a hole does it leave in the market, and what capacity is likely to fill the void? We take a quick look at some...
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Commercial and market outlook
Germany to step up climate action
The German Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck recently presented a review of Germany’s current climate action status detailing both climate targets in various sectors and the expansion of renewables and the power grid. However, the minister stated that climate action in Germany is currently below expectations, with...
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Commercial and market outlook
Hogging the spotlight: the opportunity in the evening peak
As the duck curve steepens and renewable energy penetration increases in the NEM, we briefly examine revenue share by time of day and highlight the growing opportunity in the evening peak. Will this become the new normal, with revenues increasingly concentrated in just one part of the day? Or will...
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Commercial and market outlook
Is the NEM going off schedule?
Is the NEM getting harder to control with rising variable renewable generation and distributed photovoltaic growth? AEMO’s balancing of scheduled supply is critical to ensure the system remains stable and wholesale prices work efficiently. This Chart of the week briefly examines if the NEM is “on schedule” to meet this...
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Commercial and market outlook
Round and round it goes, where the loop flow stops, nobody knows
A by-product of how market boundaries are defined, loop flows are phenomena in electricity markets that manifest as flows going in one direction across parts of a network loop and goes the opposite way in other parts of the same network loop. Regardless of whether the market design is nodal...
