Commercial and market outlook

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The VFF… Very Fast and Financially rewarding market so far

    On 9 October 2023, 1pm (market time), we saw the start of two new contingency FCAS markets. The Very fast raise contingency FCAS market, and the Very fast lower contingency FCAS. Upon commencement of the VF FCAS market, a commissioning period of two weeks with an initial max requirement of...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Is the sun setting on utility solar?

    The Federal Government has legislated emissions reductions of 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. Sourcing electricity from renewable technologies is fundamental to meeting this, with a much-publicised target of 82% renewables in the grid by 2030 – up from a current value of 38% over the last year. Fortunately, the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Very Fast FCAS market is about to commence – a look at a possible time-of-day profile for R1

    On 9 October 2023, 1pm (market time), the dispatch of the new Very Fast (VF) FCAS market in the NEM will commence and will add two new markets for contingency FCAS, Raise 1 (R1) and Lower 1 (L1). AEMO has released a final industry go-live plan to keep track of...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Zap, Crackle, Pop! SA’s shocking electric dance party on the 11th

    Across the mainland states in the NEM, South Australia (SA) relies heavily on variable renewable energy (VRE) resources. SA is an excellent subject to test the premise “What if the wind doesn’t blow, and the sun doesn’t shine”? Negative spot prices persist in South Australia due to an abundant supply...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Polarisation of wholesale spot prices leads to opportunity for arbitrage services

    Over the last five financial years, South Australia has seen a significant increase in price volatility, with substantial portions of time both negative and above $250/MWh, leading to increasing opportunities for storage systems to provide arbitrage services. A number of events initiated the reduction in wholesale energy prices between $50/MWh...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Knights who say FI: FI growing despite forecast systems popularity

    Although not quite as thrilling for some as the search for the Holy Grail, finding a way to minimise causer pays costs continues to take the focus of both wind and solar farms. Using the FI value through self-forecast systems[1] has become increasingly prevalent for these assets in an effort...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    How much Raise FCAS is needed as inertia reduces?

    The Step Change scenario in the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP) is targeting 83% renewable energy generation in the NEM by 2030-31. By then, around 79GW of VRE resources (wind, utility solar, and distributed PV) is expected to have been installed to help replace the 14GW capacity of synchronous generation...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    ESB’s prototype; what can it tell us about the Transmission Access Reform?

    In May 2023, the Energy Security Board (ESB) published a consultation paper addressing transmission congestion. The paper proposed a voluntary congestion relief market (CRM) and a priority access mechanism. The priority access mechanism tends to incentivise generators to sit in non-congested areas to avoid further congestion. The CRM model also...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Two more retailers bite the dust

    The announcement on Friday that QEnergy and Mojo Power will no longer provide retail services illustrates the battering Australian electricity retailers have faced over the last year. High hedging costs, especially for non-vertically integrated retailers, have seen smaller retailers hit the wall, such as Elysian Energy, Enova Energy, and Power...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    How does thermal storage stack up compared to batteries?

    Along with the retirement of coal/gas power plants in the NEM, long-duration energy storage systems (LDESS), often exceeding 8 hours of storage, are becoming more crucial in transitioning to a more sustainable and renewable energy future. LDESS technologies, such as battery storage systems (BESS), thermal energy storage systems (TESS), compressed...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    VNI West selected path; an incentive for delaying coal retirements?

    On 29 May 2023, AEMO published a conclusions report on the VNI West Project. According to the report, option 5A (a variant of  AEMO’s preferred option in a previous consultation paper) is preferred for VNI West. In option 5A, the transmission line crosses the Murray River north of Kerang (Wamba...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Spot the spread: Are current battery revenues enough to encourage further investment?

    In AEMO’s ‘Step Change’ scenario, it was estimated that storage capacity in the NEM would need to increase by a factor of 30 between 2022 and 2050 to support a grid transformation that limits temperature rises below 2 degrees. This represents about 13GW of new storage capacity by 2030 and...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Feast or famine? FCAS costs in South Australia

    Frequency Control Ancillary Service (FCAS) prices are highly volatile, at times resulting in short periods of extremely high FCAS cost. Three such events in recent history are the South Australian (SA) islanding events in November 2019, February 2020, and November 2022. During these events, FCAS costs in SA totalled $16...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    It’s the Liddell things that matter

    Australia’s oldest coal-fired power plant Liddell retired completely in the last week of April 2023 after 52 years. This giant of AGL, which had a total registered capacity of 2,000 MW, operationally acted as a 1600MW station and 1200MW after the closure of its third unit. Australia’s transition to clean...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Iceman Liddell calls it a career

    Recently in the news, there has been some concern that the closure of the Liddell power station in NSW will be a repeat of what we witnessed in 2017 with the closure of Hazelwood. Hazelwood’s closure led to higher prices, particularly over summer peak demand periods1. This is a poor...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Patriots ‘Dynasty’ off to a rough start, as New England suffers loss to the MLFs…

    For many, the first of April is marked in calendars as a day for jokes and silly nuisances. For the few, specifically the energy industry, we have it pencilled in for the release of the upcoming year’s Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs). Over the last half-decade, movements in MLFs have received...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Prices soar in the west

    For the first time in the history of the Western Australian Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), the balancing price reached the maximum price limit of $1,018/MWh between 5:30pm and 7:30pm on Tuesday, 29 November 2022. This came one month after the state-owned Muja C Unit 5 coal power station was closed....

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Australia’s hydrogen success is tied to energy market policies

    According to South Australia’s Hydrogen Power Plant study, the global demand for hydrogen is projected to reach 650 megatons in 2050, with a potential export market of $300b per year. In this market, Australia is well placed for renewable hydrogen production with a considerable penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE)....

  • Commercial and market outlook

    It’s finally happening; EV market hotter than ICE in 2022! Is the NEM ready?

    For the first time in 30 years, Australia’s highest-selling mid-size vehicle is not a Toyota Camry - running an internal combustion engine (ICE). As reported by 7 news, it has been replaced by the Tesla Model 3. This piece of information demonstrates that the EV uptake in Australia is achieving...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    “There’s a hole in the bucket, dear Liza”: but maybe not as big as we think?…

    There has been talk for years about the potential introduction into the National Electricity Market of a “capacity market”, with significant pushback from the industry over the potential for a capacity market to prolong the life of coal and gas and slow decarbonisation of the grid. On Friday last week...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    “If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough.” – Mario Andretti

    Over the past few months, there has been an avalanche of announcements related to the energy market. Victoria wants to be 65% renewable by 2030 and 95% by 2035, AGL is likely to retire Loy Yang A ten years earlier, Queensland has its Energy and Jobs Plan, and transmission investment...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Casualties of the energy transition highway – market effects of Torrens Island B retirement

    As part of Australia’s energy transition, investments are being made to ensure sufficient network capacity to host renewable energy generation, share them between regions, and maintain power system security and reliability. One of the interconnectors being built is Project EnergyConnect (PEC), which will provide 800 MW of transfer capacity between...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    A taste of freedom for renewables with syncons in South Australia

    Today wind capacity in South Australia stands at 2500MW, contributing to almost 40% of the energy generation in the state. This is in addition to utility-scale solar and rooftop PV, which contribute 4% and 15% of total generation in SA, respectively. With such a high level of variable renewable energy...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Selling out the ARENA – how grants for renewables have changed over time

    The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) was one of those rare institutions that managed to survive the political energy battles over the last decade. Initially established in 2012, ARENA has dispensed over $1.9b in funding to date to support renewable technologies, often at the ‘pre-commercial’ stage. The ARENA funding gives...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Boulevard of Broken Plants: Can NSW reserves handle non-Green Days?

    It’s been easy to get caught up in all the news from the Victoria and Queensland governments proposing record-setting funding and environmental targets by 2030 and 2035, along with the news of AGL bringing forward the closure of Loy Yang A. This signals that energy transition is now well and...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    EV uptake set to transform the grid in the Australia – but how much?

    Electric vehicles (EVs) are slowly becoming more popular in Australia, with new car sales increased during the last two years. Although Australia is behind in EV deployment compared to other countries, Federal and state governments have taken serious steps to accelerate EV uptake. Therefore, EVs could play a significant role...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Moving with the times: How trading strategies in the NEM changed in a year

    Inherent in an electricity market like the NEM is its ever-changing landscape. Contributors to these changes may be government-driven policies, evolving market dynamics caused by external factors like a global pandemic, a worldwide rise in fuel prices, and even changes in the market structure itself. As cliché as it may...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Off the charts: ESOO flags earlier reliability shortfalls but no need to panic yet

    In the space of a year, the prospect of reliability shortfalls in the NEM has increased significantly. This is the stark finding of AEMO’s latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report. In our Chart of the week, we illustrate how reliability forecasts have deteriorated in just a year, and we...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Do batteries add viability to electrolysers within the current market?

    Last month, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced that there will be a gas shortfall in the east coast market in 2023, not a surprise considering the international gas crisis and high gas prices in Australia. Such events have increased attention towards expanding gas supply or reducing the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Recent events push NEM turnover to new heights

    The story of recent times in the NEM has been the significant escalation of wholesale price outcomes in the market. As discussed repeatedly, elevated fuel costs for gas and supply constraints in the market have sent NEM turnover to uncharted territory. By NEM turnover, we refer to the total costs...