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Benchmark power curve
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Press Releases
GB power prices to remain high despite drop in short-term forecasts
Cornwall Insight have cut their short-term power market price forecast by 12%, with average costs for 2024 now predicted to be £113 per MWh1. The decrease in electricity price predictions is attributed to the higher than expected gas reserves in Europe, lowering fears of shortages this winter. The data, included...
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Press Releases
Government’s offshore wind shortfall could delay net zero
A new report forecasting the energy generation mix out to 2030, has calculated the government will miss its 50GW offshore wind capacity target, with potential consequences for net zero. Modelling from Cornwall Insight, included in its quarterly GB Benchmark Power Curve report, forecasts offshore wind capacity will increase from...
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Media Mentions
City AM| Energy Bill Support
Our Principal Consultant Dr Craig Lowrey spoke in City AM on the financial relief that the government and wider industry should be looking to provide consumers, given energy bills were predicted to stabilise well above pre-energy crisis levels. He also emphasised that the government needed to keep a focus on...
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Media Mentions
The Times| Long-term energy forecasts
The Times featured our Benchmark Power Curve forecast, revealing that energy prices were projected to remain elevated until the late 2030s, as stated by Tom Edwards, Senior Modeller at Cornwall Insight. In his conversation with The Times, Edwards explained that factors such as escalating power demand, growing exports, and dependence...
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Press Releases
New forecast warns power prices to remain elevated until late 2030s
Cornwall Insight has unveiled its latest GB Power Market Outlook to 2030, revealing that power prices in Great Britain will not shift below pre-2022 levels until the late 2030s. The report cites the surging demand for power as the main driver behind this trend, as the move to electric heating...
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Press Releases
Increase in Irish exports raises long-term power price projections
Cornwall Insight has raised its long-term predictions for power prices in Ireland as a projected rise in interconnector exports and reduced imports pushes up demand and costs. Ireland’s first 2023 - ‘All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030’ – which looks at data modelled in the first quarter of the year,...
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Press Releases
Delays to onshore wind investment increase long-term power prices
Note: Cornwall Insight Ireland release the 'All-Island Power Market Outlook 2023' on a quarterly basis. The increase in long-term power prices refers to the comparison with our Q3 Power Market Outlook released in October 2022. Data from Cornwall Insight Ireland’s fourth - ‘All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030’ – has...
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Press Releases
Average power prices to remain elevated for the next three years
Data from Cornwall Insight Australia’s Benchmark Power Curve (BPC)1 has forecast that from 2026, power prices in a neutral/base scenario will be, on average, ~$60-$100/MWh across all states in the National Electricity Market (NEM). This aligns with ~$40-80/MWh levels seen during 2021. The BPC has, however, forecast that the annual...
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Press Releases
Offshore wind crucial to stabilising the UK energy market
Data from Cornwall Insight included in our third 2022 - GB Power Market Outlook to 2030 - has forecast a drop in prices from late 2023, as gas prices fall from current peaks. Later in the decade, renewables play a key role in the levelling out of prices despite increased...
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Media Mentions
Guardian| Hydrogen could add costs to household bills
Cornwall Insight warned that using hydrogen for domestic heating could be very expensive, with the Guardian reporting on our joint report with renewable energy charity MCS Foundation. Our Senior Consultant Jitendra Patel, spoke on why it is simply uneconomical to use 100% hydrogen for household energy. Guardian
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Media Mentions
Telegraph| Energy Bill Relief Scheme
Our Head of Relationship Development Robert Buckley spoke to the Telegraph on the newly announced energy bill support for businesses. He warned that while the short-term fix was welcome, the government must make longer-term reform of the energy industry a priority. Telegraph
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Media Mentions
Current+| Business energy crisis could raise inequality
A paper by Cornwall Insight warned of the inequality that increasing energy costs could cause, with industries typically included in the government's levelling up agenda being the worst hit. Naomi Potter, a Lead Analyst at Cornwall Insight, called for intervention by the government to lower costs and protect small and...
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Media Mentions
Independent| Decade of higher energy bills
Senior Modeller Tom Edwards, spoke on our Benchmark Power Curve which forecast power costs to be above pre-2021 levels for the next decade. However the dip in power prices from 2024 up to 2030, shows that markets and governments are investing in renewables as a response to the current higher...
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Press Releases
Investment in renewable pushes power price projections down but they remain above the pre-2021 average for next decade
Cornwall Insight’s latest - GB Power Market Outlook to 2030 – has shown greater investment in renewables by nations across the continent, which has resulted in lower price projections in GB from 2024 up until 2030. This is compared with our first report, published three months ago. Renewable investment has increased largely as...
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Press Releases
Energy prices across Australia to remain high until 2026
Research from Cornwall Insight Australia’s Benchmark Power Curve (BPC)1, which looks at power prices up until 2042, has forecast that all states in the National Electricity Market (NEM) will have an annual median price of around $200/MWh, up until FY2025. These high prices are expected to feed into bills over...
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Press Releases
Energy prices to remain significantly above average up to 2030 and beyond
Research from Cornwall Insight looking at Great Britain’s (GB) Power Market out to 2030 has shown energy prices will remain in excess of £100/MWh annually. This is significantly above the five year pre-2021 historic average of £50/MWh in Winter and the even lower prices in pre-2021 Summer. Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark...
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Press Releases
New funding mechanism essential to increasing nuclear capacity in the UK
A new funding mechanism for the nuclear sector, the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model, has the potential to increase the UK’s nuclear capacity to 24GW over the next 30 years, according to Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve (BPC). A significant rise when compared with the 6.7GW that is likely to...
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Media Mentions
Current+| Volatile energy prices
Current+ reported on Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve, which forecasts that volatile wholesale energy prices could continue into 2030 and beyond. Tom Edwards, Senior Modelling Consultant, explained that low nuclear and coal assets, coupled with an overreliance on imported energy could leave the UK vulnerable to variable pricing. A greater...
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Press Releases
Volatile energy prices set to continue into 2030
Research from Cornwall Insight has shown that conditions could be in place for volatile wholesale energy prices to continue into 2030 and beyond, unless the UK develops a long-term strategy to cope with changes in energy production and unstable economic, geopolitical, and ecological systems. Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve, which...
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Press Releases
Cornwall Insight Australia develops a 5-minute model for Benchmark Power Curve
Cornwall Insight Australia has developed a 5-minute model for their Benchmark Power Curve (BPC), improving the granularity of their price forecasts from 30 minutes to 5 minutes dispatch for the first five years of the 30-year forecast. Cornwall Insight Australia’s BPC helps market participants understand trends in future prices and...
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Press Releases
EVs are predicted to increase electricity demand by 71.6TWh
The latest figures from Cornwall Insight’s ‘Benchmark power curve’ forecasts that by 2040 EVs will contribute an additional 71.6TWh, this is a massive 31 times higher than the current level of demand for electricity from electrified transport and 25% of current annual demand which stands at 299TWh (excluding losses). According...
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Press Releases
High wholesale prices and negative pricing events forecasted to grow
Research from Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve, which forecasts the power market to 2045 under different net zero scenarios, highlights volatility in the wholesale power market is set to increase. Its central case scenario predicts that the standard deviation of hourly wholesale prices could reach £41.8/MWh by 2030. In the...
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Press Releases
Great Britain could become net exporter of power by 2040s
Interconnection with EU nations, regardless of trading arrangements post-Brexit, will continue to play a pivotal role in driving wholesale power prices and system flexibility in the future. Modelling of the GB and EU markets by Cornwall Insight shows that increased interconnection through the 2020s and 2030s could provide a route...
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Press Releases
Forecasts show 46 GW increase of renewables technology capacity required by 2030
Forecasts from Cornwall Insight’s ‘Benchmark power curve’ suggests that up to ~46GW of new build renewable technology ̶ ~11GW onshore wind, ~10GW solar and ~25GW offshore wind ̶ may need to be developed by 2030 to keep pace with 2050 net zero targets. This large-scale deployment of very low/zero marginal...
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Press Releases
Can market driven subsidy-free PPAs deliver deeper, wider decarbonisation?
In a week in which the prospect of legislating for net-zero is again in the headlines, a solid prospectus for delivering deeper and wider power sector decarbonisation has never been more critical. A positive outcome of the closure of subsidy schemes has been the way in which resilient and adaptable...
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Press Releases
Capacity Market in oversupply but predicted to balance out by mid-2020s
Earlier this month, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Greg Clark wrote to the Delivery Body to update the target procurement volumes to 2.7GW, from the 4.6GW initially recommended in 2018, for the replacement T-1 2019-20 capacity auction that is due to be held in June. This...
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Press Releases
GB can meet carbon budgets without new nuclear plants, but urgent policy direction is needed
Findings from Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve – a comprehensive market and asset-level power price modelling service – shows that meeting GB’s fourth and fifth carbon budgets without commissioning new nuclear capacity is a real possibility. Not only this, but the forecasts predict that meeting these targets can be achieved...