NEM

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Seasonal frequency in the NEM: is VRE continuing to drive it?

    Frequency control remains a challenge for AEMO. New PFR (primary frequency response) provisions established in March 2020 will help AEMO to control frequency more efficiently. However, is it yet to be seen how market participants will be incentivised to participate in PFR market. In light of the rapid growth of...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Is the NEM going off schedule?

    Is the NEM getting harder to control with rising variable renewable generation and distributed photovoltaic growth? AEMO’s balancing of scheduled supply is critical to ensure the system remains stable and wholesale prices work efficiently. This Chart of the week briefly examines if the NEM is “on schedule” to meet this...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Round and round it goes, where the loop flow stops, nobody knows

    A by-product of how market boundaries are defined, loop flows are phenomena in electricity markets that manifest as flows going in one direction across parts of a network loop and goes the opposite way in other parts of the same network loop. Regardless of whether the market design is nodal...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Residues of negative pricing

    Building on the last two Charts of the week, the rise in the frequency of negative wholesale energy prices in the NEM has impacts beyond the price of electricity. In this Chart of the week, we take a closer look at the impact of negative pricing on Inter-Regional Settlement Residue...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Duck, duck, goose: bigger bellies and longer necks

    The last few months have been littered with record low demand in the system, highlighting that the ducks of the NEM continue to arch their backs lower and lower.  In this Chart of the week, we zoom out on the changes to scheduled demand and in the variability of the lowest and...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    How deep is your love? A look at the depth of negative prices in South Australia

    The recent rise in the frequency of negative wholesale energy prices in the NEM has captured the attention of many market observers. A less-discussed aspect is how deep these negative prices run. How much additional demand could be added to the system during the negative-priced dispatch intervals before the prices...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Mandated PFR tunes out regulation FCAS markets – What happens to batteries?

    The introduction of the mandatory Primary Frequency Response (PFR) in September 2020 improved frequency control of the NEM considerably, as highlighted by AEMO. In this Chart of the week, we look at NEM mainland FCAS regulation services dispatch before and after PFR implementation and the behaviour of the Hornsdale Power...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Don’t look back in anger: are peaking assets exploiting 5-min price spikes?

    Building on our previous Chart of the week in October, where we reviewed the first couple of weeks of 5-minute settlement, we wanted to revisit this topic. Now two months in, we take another look and see how well the fastest responding assets in the NEM are capturing the best...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    FCAS not dead?

    A couple of months ago, AEMO released the final Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios Report (IASR) that contains the basis of all planning publications for the next few years.  The changing electricity consumption and generation pattern in the NEM is introducing new challenges to the operation of the energy system; minimum and...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Houston, we have a transmission problem

    Variable Renewable Energy is making tremendous strides towards the predominant energy source in the NEM, but its voracious capital intensity is over-running existing transmission capacity. Consumers are faced with a $3.5bn transmission build cost over the next 20 years, which to return value relies heavily on the emergence of grid...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Victorian story of gas demand segments

    The Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) prices in Victoria have been on a rising trend since the start-up of LNG exports in 2015. Is this trend sustainable, given the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) forecasts an improved gas supply outlook with the new Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) expected to...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Why invest in batteries?

    Batteries currently participate in the wholesale arbitrage and FCAS services (contingency and regulation). However, a lack of clarity in policies and regulations specific to batteries create uncertainties for investors. The key challenge is to determine and capture all possible battery value streams (current and future services). Stacked value streams increase...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Minimum demand projections in Victoria

    The surplus rooftop solar provides an enormous opportunity for additional flexible load, where this can be optimised during the day. Electric Vehicles acting at a distributed level (exactly where the surplus is arising) provide the perfect solution if utilised in conjunction with smart metering to assist in mitigating these issues....

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Spring is here, where are you?

    With the onset of spring in September, we typically observe a drop in demand in NEM. However, this year the decline in demand has seen NEM and multiple states breaking several records for minimum operational demand in the middle of the day, which is largely driven by solar penetration in...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Dispatchable capacity – it’s a marathon AND a sprint

    For now, incumbent generators (like coal) will need to meet the NEM ramping requirements. Provided that coal remains online with the current dispatchable capacity, there is likely to be sufficient capacity in reserve to meet the ramping requirements of the system albeit in an incremental way (every five minutes). However,...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    I can be your hydro baby, I can ramp away the pain

    The recent suite of energy market reforms proposed by the Energy Security Board (ESB) has prompted much discussion about the type of capacity that needs to be procured in a future NEM that seems certain to have a very high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). In this Chart of...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    A tale of two causes: curtailment as renewable records break

    Renewable generation records continue to fall in the NEM, with several dropping in succession over the last week. As the amount of renewable generation in the NEM increases (led by a world-leading uptake of rooftop solar), as does the amount of curtailment. As curtailment is essentially wasted energy, minimising it...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    A look into large-scale battery market revenues FY20-21

    This Chart of the week examines the distribution of daily battery revenue that was generated in FY21 for the batteries operating in the NEM over this time frame. Net Energy revenue is calculated as the revenue generated in the energy markets less cost of charging plus any revenue earnt from...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Feeding the future NEM – Eat some now. Save some for later.

    As the NEM continues to transition towards increased penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE), the use of the word ‘curtailment’ has also increased. While curtailments have historically been a natural part of market outcomes (i.e. generators withholding capacity at higher price points), the increased prevalence of curtailment of VRE is...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Slip slidin’ away, You know the nearer your destination

    In our previous ‘Chart of the week’ back in November 2020 (Issue 61), we looked at the projected uptake of battery storage projects in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Nine months on, with a number of large projects announced, we felt it was worth an update. In our last chart,...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Going for green: record level of wind generation in the NEM

    In the spirit of the Australian Olympic team, instantaneous wind generation in the National Energy Market (NEM) reached new heights during a blustery end to July. Output hit a record 6,427MW at 8:05 pm on 25 July, after breaking 6,000MW for the first time just the day before. In this...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | AEMO’s 2025 goal means that SA becomes the proving grounds

    The latest news in the National Electricity Market (NEM) is AEMO’s goal to be capable of handling periods of 100% instantaneous renewables penetration by 2025. This is a significant challenge and fitting given the pace the NEM is moving to, supporting increasingly higher levels of instantaneous (and increasingly asynchronous) renewables...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Examining Victoria’s recent wind drought

    This ‘Chart of the week’ examines the recent spell of low wind generation in Victoria and associated elevated prices. Previously, ‘Chart of the week’ issue 78 highlights the risk of wind droughts within the National Electricity Market (NEM) due to the high correlation of wind fronts both within states and...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Australian Chart of the week | Two roller coaster rides for the price of one? Preliminary vs final MLFs

    In recent years, movements in marginal loss factors (MLFs) have received significant attention in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Many renewable projects in remote areas have experienced material MLF reductions as more supply connects nearby. For example, the MLF for Broken Hill Solar Farm saw a whopping 50 ppt drop...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | 3 2 1… fight: VRE and price cannibalisation in NEM

    In the last decade, the rapid decline in deployment cost of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation capacity has given renewables an advantage over fossil fuels for new builds as highlighted in ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020’ report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In the report, Australia has...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | “I feel the earth move under my feet”: from high to lows

    We have seen a dramatic shift in FCAS price fortunes over the past year or so, going from all-time highs of ~$229.3mn in Q1 of 2020 (due to the separation event) to only ~$40.1mn in Q1 2021. Since 2019 we have also seen regulation raise prices decline from robust prices...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | NEM wind generation: Do birds of a feather flock together?

    With a growing expectation that coal plants will face early retirement, this week’s ‘Chart of the week’ examines the correlation between different wind patterns in the various identified Renewable Energy Zones in the NEM. As would be expected, there is a tendency of high correlation within the individual states, where...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Winds of change: Victoria and its unique afternoon ‘belly bump’

    To say the transition is well and truly underway in the Australian NEM is not exactly news. In the last year alone, renewables have delivered record shares in generation mix across the NEM. Whilst solar is the technology often in the news given its impact on both operational demand, mid-day...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Yesterday, [battery storage] was such an easy game to play

    FCAS continues to drive the majority of revenues for battery storage in the NEM (there are five active utility-scale battery storage projects operating in the NEM; three in SA and two in VIC), however given the forecast pipeline of prospective storage projects (with two 500MW+ projects having already been announced...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | December 2020: when Santa brought low temperatures & prices

    With just about half of summer left to go, many keen NEM observers would agree that it has been a pretty mild journey so far; at least as far as the NEM is concerned. But how mild are we talking here? In this 'Chart of the week', via a time-of-day...