FCAS

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    R1 and L1 revving up the BESS revenues

    In our ‘The VFF… Very Fast and Financially rewarding market so far’ Chart of the week, the two new contingency markets, the Very Fast raise contingency FCAS market and the Very Fast lower contingency FCAS, were analysed and demonstrated the high participation of big batteries along with VPPs and DERs....

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The VFF… Very Fast and Financially rewarding market so far

    On 9 October 2023, 1pm (market time), we saw the start of two new contingency FCAS markets. The Very fast raise contingency FCAS market, and the Very fast lower contingency FCAS. Upon commencement of the VF FCAS market, a commissioning period of two weeks with an initial max requirement of...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Is the sun setting on utility solar?

    The Federal Government has legislated emissions reductions of 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. Sourcing electricity from renewable technologies is fundamental to meeting this, with a much-publicised target of 82% renewables in the grid by 2030 – up from a current value of 38% over the last year. Fortunately, the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Very Fast FCAS market is about to commence – a look at a possible time-of-day profile for R1

    On 9 October 2023, 1pm (market time), the dispatch of the new Very Fast (VF) FCAS market in the NEM will commence and will add two new markets for contingency FCAS, Raise 1 (R1) and Lower 1 (L1). AEMO has released a final industry go-live plan to keep track of...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Spread your wings and arbitrage away as Q2 sees ‘the spread’ increase

    The focus of batteries is constantly adjusting to reflect ‘where the money is at’. Various quarters have trends, and others have events that swing momentum. With FCAS enablement in Q2 this year dropping to some of the lowest values since 2016, shifting the solar curve, or rather arbitrage, became the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Proposed changes to PFR and the impact on battery operations

    On 3 August, at the request of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) initiated a rule change request proposing to “clarify the mandatory primary frequency response (PFR) obligations of scheduled bidirectional plant (i.e. batteries with a capacity of 5MW and greater)”. One of the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    The Knights who say FI: FI growing despite forecast systems popularity

    Although not quite as thrilling for some as the search for the Holy Grail, finding a way to minimise causer pays costs continues to take the focus of both wind and solar farms. Using the FI value through self-forecast systems[1] has become increasingly prevalent for these assets in an effort...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    How much Raise FCAS is needed as inertia reduces?

    The Step Change scenario in the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP) is targeting 83% renewable energy generation in the NEM by 2030-31. By then, around 79GW of VRE resources (wind, utility solar, and distributed PV) is expected to have been installed to help replace the 14GW capacity of synchronous generation...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Spot the spread: Are current battery revenues enough to encourage further investment?

    In AEMO’s ‘Step Change’ scenario, it was estimated that storage capacity in the NEM would need to increase by a factor of 30 between 2022 and 2050 to support a grid transformation that limits temperature rises below 2 degrees. This represents about 13GW of new storage capacity by 2030 and...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    A pebble in the water makes a ripple effect…

    At demand levels averaging only ~200-700MW, FCAS markets are dwarfed by the ~20,000MW energy demand in the NEM. Nonetheless, with 8 different markets to participate in, the potential value that participating in FCAS can add to a participant's revenue should not be underestimated. In this Chart of the week, we...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Crying over spilled solar – how much can a battery help?

    A standalone battery earns its revenue not only from the arbitrage opportunity between day and night prices but also from participation in FCAS markets. This remains true when the battery is paired with a solar farm but can be complicated by constraints or trade-offs between FCAS participation and solar export....

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Christmas comes early for South Australian battery owners

    The choice of Chart of the week was an easy one following Saturday’s storms that ‘reined’ down on South Australia. The state became isolated from the rest of the National Electricity Market after one of ElectraNet’s pylons, supporting the interconnector between SA and Victoria, was knocked down[1].   The consequence...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Now we’re peaking with gas: how much evening NEM demand could be replaced with batteries?

    The events leading up to the recent market suspension in June have highlighted the role that peaking gas-fired generation plays in satisfying demand and setting prices across the NEM in the morning and evening peak periods. The team recently explored some of the drivers and effects of these events in...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Hydrogen hype: How cheap the hydrogen from electrolysis can be?

    Hydrogen is considered a potential replacement for fossil fuels for energy generation, transport etc. Currently, 96% of hydrogen production originates from fossil fuels through steam reforming and coal gasifications. Only a small fraction (~4%) is produced via electrolysis. The high Capex of the electrolyser is usually referred to as the...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Back to the Future P-IV: Are P5 Forecasts reliable?

    Is there a correct way to be one step ahead of your competitors? Do you want to be able to know the price before settlement accurately? The P5 Reports supposedly provide this… or do they? Many participants use this data to determine optimal outcomes for their fleets. Still, there is...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Mandated PFR tunes out regulation FCAS markets – What happens to batteries?

    The introduction of the mandatory Primary Frequency Response (PFR) in September 2020 improved frequency control of the NEM considerably, as highlighted by AEMO. In this Chart of the week, we look at NEM mainland FCAS regulation services dispatch before and after PFR implementation and the behaviour of the Hornsdale Power...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    FCAS not dead?

    A couple of months ago, AEMO released the final Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios Report (IASR) that contains the basis of all planning publications for the next few years.  The changing electricity consumption and generation pattern in the NEM is introducing new challenges to the operation of the energy system; minimum and...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Why invest in batteries?

    Batteries currently participate in the wholesale arbitrage and FCAS services (contingency and regulation). However, a lack of clarity in policies and regulations specific to batteries create uncertainties for investors. The key challenge is to determine and capture all possible battery value streams (current and future services). Stacked value streams increase...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    A look into Battery fires (Risk and mitigation)

    Most people have multiple devices powered by a lithium-ion battery (LIB), which can be found in almost every portable device (e.g. smartphones, laptops etc). However, due to the small battery size in these devices, they are relatively simple to control. LIB deployment at utility scale in the energy market, however,...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | VRE pays more as PFR helps reduce coal FCAS costs

    In our previous ‘Chart of the week’ in November 2020, we reviewed the increasing percentage of causer pays cost that solar generators bear due to their generation profiles and how this results in them paying significantly more of the causer pays cost as a ratio of the generation they provide. More than...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Peak raise regulation FCAS volumes drop by 72MWs

    It is helpful to understand Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) as FCAS price forecasts are needed to estimate generator and customer costs, as well as possible revenues for new and existing ancillary service providers. AEMO procures regulation FCAS to balance frequency during normal operation. From May 2019, AEMO has procured...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | “I feel the earth move under my feet”: from high to lows

    We have seen a dramatic shift in FCAS price fortunes over the past year or so, going from all-time highs of ~$229.3mn in Q1 of 2020 (due to the separation event) to only ~$40.1mn in Q1 2021. Since 2019 we have also seen regulation raise prices decline from robust prices...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Round and Round the Market: Black Coal vs Batteries

    This year appears to be the year of the battery, with the volume of projects that have been announced or in some stage of planning approaching the 10GW mark it is worth taking a look at how batteries are performing in the FCAS markets over the last two years. Currently...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Show me the future: can storage bank on FCAS being bankable?

    Previously we have examined the importance in FCAS prices for the revenue stream for batteries. With a growing interest in batteries in the market, this ‘Chart of the week’ takes a deeper look into the impact of bidding behaviour on the Regulation Raise price since 2012. From January 2012 until...

  • Power and gas networks

    Australian Chart of the week | Green hydrogen costs plummet, LNG prices soar

    The ACCC currently calculates the LNG netback price as the price a gas exporter could receive for gas exports excluding the costs to convert and ship the gas. Asian cold weather and supply bottlenecks have driven the February LNG netback price to nearly $20 a gigajoule, more than double the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Yesterday, [battery storage] was such an easy game to play

    FCAS continues to drive the majority of revenues for battery storage in the NEM (there are five active utility-scale battery storage projects operating in the NEM; three in SA and two in VIC), however given the forecast pipeline of prospective storage projects (with two 500MW+ projects having already been announced...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | One of these things is not like the others: FCAS separation value

    Energy storage has been at the forefront of conversations resulting from AEMO’s newly released 2020 Integrated System Plan (ISP). The ISP states that 6-19GW of dispatchable resources are needed to support more than 26GW of new renewables. So where will battery energy storage fit in and where will they make...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | A little respect (just a little bit): FCAS costs hit solar hardest

    Wholesale energy prices may have hit some of their lowest prices in years, but the total cost of Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) skyrocketed in Q1 resulting from the South Australian Islanding event. The islanding event threw back into the spotlight the importance of understanding the costs associated with FCAS...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | The more things change, the more they stay the same…

    This Chart of the week focuses on the comparatively small but important Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) in the NEM. FCAS in terms of total dollars is minuscule in comparison to the total energy bill. While the proportion may appear small, its function is key to maintaining a secure operating...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Where in the market are battery storage revenues?

    Storage is seen as a technology that will solve many of the issues on the grid. This includes providing peaking energy, correcting frequency events and providing network support. In this Chart of the week, we take a look at four battery storage systems currently active in the NEM. These are...