benchmark power curve

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Spot the spread: Are current battery revenues enough to encourage further investment?

    In AEMO’s ‘Step Change’ scenario, it was estimated that storage capacity in the NEM would need to increase by a factor of 30 between 2022 and 2050 to support a grid transformation that limits temperature rises below 2 degrees. This represents about 13GW of new storage capacity by 2030 and...

  • Low carbon generation

    NSW’s transition to a new era: What will replace Eraring?

    After 52 years of operation, the NSW Liddell power station officially shut down last 28 April. With Liddell’s closure, NSW’s transition to a green energy future is in full swing. First announced in 2015, NSW had seven years to ensure there is enough replacement capacity once Liddell is retired. Since...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Iceman Liddell calls it a career

    Recently in the news, there has been some concern that the closure of the Liddell power station in NSW will be a repeat of what we witnessed in 2017 with the closure of Hazelwood. Hazelwood’s closure led to higher prices, particularly over summer peak demand periods1. This is a poor...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Exploring the impact of storage assets on QEJP sensitivities

    Battery storage has great potential to generate high revenues during large market shifts, especially in Queensland (as shown in our previous analysis in Cotw #158). The Queensland government’s recently announced Energy and Jobs Plan (QEJP) would be another big shift as it aims to reduce the state’s reliance on generation...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Turning Japanese: Typical power price spreads in Japan

    Cornwall Insight has been supporting customers in the Japanese market for some time now. This Chart of the week explores the daily spreads seen in recent quarters and why a number of international players are turning to Japan. The Japanese market has experienced substantial volatility in recent quarters. The island...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    “If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough.” – Mario Andretti

    Over the past few months, there has been an avalanche of announcements related to the energy market. Victoria wants to be 65% renewable by 2030 and 95% by 2035, AGL is likely to retire Loy Yang A ten years earlier, Queensland has its Energy and Jobs Plan, and transmission investment...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Casualties of the energy transition highway – market effects of Torrens Island B retirement

    As part of Australia’s energy transition, investments are being made to ensure sufficient network capacity to host renewable energy generation, share them between regions, and maintain power system security and reliability. One of the interconnectors being built is Project EnergyConnect (PEC), which will provide 800 MW of transfer capacity between...

  • Low carbon generation

    Lean, clean, electrolysing machines – how clean is Australia’s hydrogen future?

    The Clean Energy Regulator is currently exploring how to define ‘low-emissions’ hydrogen production through a Guarantee of Origin (GO) scheme for Australia. Such a scheme could set a threshold level for carbon emissions from the production process in order to classify it as being ‘clean’, similar to schemes in operation...

  • Low carbon generation

    Loy Yang A closure: How much VRE and firming capacity is required to cover peak hours?

    AGL has accelerated the closure of the Loy Yang A power station for the second time in 2022, a few days after the Victorian government announced a target of 2.6 GW storage by 2030, increasing to 6.3 GW storage by 2035. According to the AGL announcement, released on 29 September,...

  • Low carbon generation

    Analysing earlier coal retirement in Victoria: What does it take for more emission reduction?

    AEMO has recently published the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP), which provides an energy transition roadmap for the National Electricity Market (NEM). This ISP focuses on the “Step Change” scenario, which reflects strong action on climate change leading to a step change reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, based on the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    “Each day looking for new ways to go on”: could a renewable capacity market assist hydrogen turbines?

    The rise of renewables has seen the need for additional firming capacity in order to smooth renewable output and replace coal capacity in the evening peak. The ESB and federal Ministers are currently in discussions regarding the development (or not) of a capacity market for the NEM. Interestingly from the...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Key highlights from our Balancing Services Forecast report

    In this week’s ‘Chart of the Week’, we will outline some of the key highlights from our latest report, to provide you with a flavour of the latest long-term trends for response and reserve.

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Elevated Wholesale Price in the NEM: QLD on the verge of triggering Administered Price Cap (APC) again

    The Administered Price Cap (APC) was triggered for the first state on 12 June at 6:55 am as a result of QLD breaching the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT) of $1,359,100 for the rolling 7-day period. This caused the withdrawal of capacities by gas generators that could not recover fuel costs...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Gas generation on the move

    Gas and electricity prices in Australia are unavoidably linked, particularly in the evening peaks where the gas generators have increased capability to set the price. Due to the recent spike in global gas prices, there has been a distinct change in gas generator bidding strategy resulting in an increase in...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Nobody said it was easy, but it’s time for us to part: VIC’s climate targets & coal

    In 2017, the Victorian Government legislated a state target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Since then, short-term targets have been set in five-year increments, with the 2030 target being to cut emissions by 45-50% below 2005 levels. The Government is currently consulting on the 2035 target, which must...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Price spikes in Queensland: Is solar revenue affected?

    In the last few months, we have seen a substantial number of high price intervals in Queensland. Increased Market Demand on 9 March and the simultaneous trip of Gladstone units 3 and 4 on 31 March spiked energy prices to $8,800/MWh and $15,100/MWh levels, respectively. These price spikes occurred between...

  • Power and gas networks

    Are you sure this is safe?

    On a real-time basis, AEMO communicates with the market through several channels, including market notices where they update everyone about the real-time state of the market and the facilities that support it. In this Chart of the week, we dive into some of the statistics around market notices to provide...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Back to the Future P-IV: Are P5 Forecasts reliable?

    Is there a correct way to be one step ahead of your competitors? Do you want to be able to know the price before settlement accurately? The P5 Reports supposedly provide this… or do they? Many participants use this data to determine optimal outcomes for their fleets. Still, there is...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    “I’m an All-Pro [coal plant]… You’ll never be more than a replacement player!”

    The retirement of Eraring has been the talk of the market since it was announced, but what are the actual implications of its retirement. How big a hole does it leave in the market, and what capacity is likely to fill the void? We take a quick look at some...

  • Home supply and services

    Future calling today?

    Focus on the immediate gas price crisis has been on wholesale prices for the short-term and the imminent price caps – but what if highly volatile markets are a feature in the future and not just the present? Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve looks at investment and operational decisions over...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Mandated PFR tunes out regulation FCAS markets – What happens to batteries?

    The introduction of the mandatory Primary Frequency Response (PFR) in September 2020 improved frequency control of the NEM considerably, as highlighted by AEMO. In this Chart of the week, we look at NEM mainland FCAS regulation services dispatch before and after PFR implementation and the behaviour of the Hornsdale Power...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Don’t look back in anger: are peaking assets exploiting 5-min price spikes?

    Building on our previous Chart of the week in October, where we reviewed the first couple of weeks of 5-minute settlement, we wanted to revisit this topic. Now two months in, we take another look and see how well the fastest responding assets in the NEM are capturing the best...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    FCAS not dead?

    A couple of months ago, AEMO released the final Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios Report (IASR) that contains the basis of all planning publications for the next few years.  The changing electricity consumption and generation pattern in the NEM is introducing new challenges to the operation of the energy system; minimum and...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    I’m pickin’ up good vibrations

    We are just through the first two weeks of 5-minute settlement. While there has been much anticipation regarding the implementation and the potential for drastic swings in prices, we felt it was an excellent time to take a quick look at the pricing outcomes to see if any immediate trends...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Don’t let the sun go down on me: solar in the sunshine state

    Previously, in Issue 45, we examined how wind and solar technologies are performing against (and impacting) the time-of-day price shape in New South Wales (NSW). In this Chart of the Week, we move further north to examine the situation in Queensland and the profound impact solar is beginning to have...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | A look under the hood: Q1 actuals vs BPC forecast

    After last week’s Chart of the Week, we received interest from some readers on the topic of price variability beyond the average profiles we showed. As we mentioned last week, the average prices (and average profiles) are just one facet that can inform the commercial viability of assets going forward. However, when...